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Estimation of Car Trips Generated by the Arrival of Autonomous Vehicles in the Montreal Metropolitan Area

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  • Marc-Olivier Pepin
  • Georges A. Tanguay

Abstract

In this article, we estimate the car trips generated by the arrival of autonomous vehicles (AV) in the Greater Montreal Area. Our research methodology is based on a simulation model which estimates new travel demand associated with AV by measuring differences in travel needs by age categories. Given the uncertainty regarding the evolution of critical variables such as future car occupancy rate, we evaluate different scenarios to assess a range of potential effects of VA on motorized travel. Thus, the results predict a 13% average increase in motorized trips based on overall results, and a 16% to 20% increase in trips based on a stable average vehicle occupancy rate in the coming years. Otherwise, the predicted increase in travel is between 2%, based on a 14% increase in occupancy, and 26%, based on a 5% decrease in occupancy. For each of the scenarios assessed in the analysis, we estimate the effects on external costs caused by automobile travel. According to our results, AV could reduce private and social costs by $ 5,059 billion in Quebec.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc-Olivier Pepin & Georges A. Tanguay, 2019. "Estimation of Car Trips Generated by the Arrival of Autonomous Vehicles in the Montreal Metropolitan Area," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-17, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2019s-17
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2019s-17.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Georges A. Tanguay & Ian Gingras, 2011. "Gas Prices Variations and Urban Sprawl: an Empirical Analysis of the 12 Largest Canadian Metropolitan Areas," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-37, CIRANO.
    2. Murray, Alan T., 2001. "Strategic analysis of public transport coverage," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 175-188, September.
    3. Young, Mischa & Tanguay, Georges A. & Lachapelle, Ugo, 2016. "Transportation costs and urban sprawl in Canadian metropolitan areas," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 25-34.
    4. De Vos, Jonas & Witlox, Frank, 2013. "Transportation policy as spatial planning tool; reducing urban sprawl by increasing travel costs and clustering infrastructure and public transportation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 117-125.
    5. Zakharenko, Roman, 2016. "Self-driving cars will change cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 26-37.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autonomous Cars; Driverless; Self-Driving; Motorized Travel; Age;
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