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How Much Do Cartel Overcharge? (The "Working Paper" Version)

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  • Marcel Boyer
  • Rachidi Kotchoni

Abstract

The estimation of cartel overcharges lies at the heart of antitrust policy on cartel prosecution as it constitutes a key element in the determination of fines. Connor and Lande (2008) conducted a survey of cartels and found a mean overcharge estimate in the range of 31% to 49%. By examining more sources, Connor (2010) finds a mean of 50.4% for successful cartels. However, the data used in those studies are estimates obtained from different methodologies, sources and contexts rather than from direct observations. Therefore, these data are subject to model error, estimation error, endogeneity bias, and publication bias. An examination of the Connor database reveals that the universe of overcharge estimate is asymmetric, heterogenous and contains a number of influential observations. Beside the fact that overcharge estimates are potentially biased, fitting a linear regression model to the data without providing a carefull treatment of the problems raised above may produce distorted results. We conduct a meta-analysis of cartel overcharge estimates in the spirit of Connor and Bolotova (2006) while providing a sound treatment of these matters. We find bias-corrected mean and median overcharge estimates of 15.47% and 16.01%. Clearly, our results have significant antitrust policy implications. L’estimation des surprix des cartels est au coeur de la politique de lutte aux cartels car elle est un élément clé de la détermination des pénalités. Connor et Lande (2008) survolent la litérature sur les majorations de prix des cartels et concluent à une augmentation moyenne variant entre 31% et 49%. Considérant un échantillon plus grand, Connor (2010) trouve une moyenne de 50,4% pour les cartels réussis. Cependant, les données utilisées dans ces études sont des estimations obtenues à partir de méthodologies, sources, et contextes différents plutôt que d’observations directes. De ce fait, ces données héritent potentiellement d’erreurs de modélisation et d’estimation, ainsi que de biais d'endogenéité et de publication. L’analyse directe des surprix dans l’échantillon de Connor révèle une distribution asymétrique, une importante hétérogénéité et la présence d’observations aberrantes. Au-delà du fait que les estimations des surprix sont potentiellement biaisées, l’estimation d’un modèle de régression linéaire avec de telles données sans un traitement adéquat des problèmes identifiés ci-dessus pourait produire des résultats fallacieux. Nous présentons une méta-analyse dans l’esprit de Connor and Bolotova (2006), mais qui tient compte adéquatement des problèmes mentionnés ci-dessus. Après correction des biais, nous obtenons une moyenne et une médiane de majorations de prix de l’ordre de 15,47% et 16,01%. Nos résultats débouchent sur des enjeux importants en matière de politique de la concurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Boyer & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2015. "How Much Do Cartel Overcharge? (The "Working Paper" Version)," CIRANO Working Papers 2015s-37, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-37
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2015s-37.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Boyer & Thomas W. Ross & Ralph A. Winter, 2017. "The rise of economics in competition policy: A Canadian perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1489-1524, December.
    2. Georg Clemens & Holger A. Rau, 2019. "Do discriminatory leniency policies fight hard‐core cartels?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 336-354, April.
    3. Tanja Artiga González & Markus Schmid & David Yermack, 2019. "Does Price Fixing Benefit Corporate Managers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4813-4840, October.
    4. Marcel Boyer & Anne Catherine Faye & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2017. "Challenges and Pitfalls in Cartel Policy and Fining," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-20, CIRANO.
    5. Bos, Iwan & Davies, Stephen & Harrington, Joseph E. & Ormosi, Peter L., 2018. "Does enforcement deter cartels? A tale of two tails," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 372-405.
    6. Marcel Boyer, 2021. "The Retail Gasoline Price-Fixing Cartel in Québec," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-06, CIRANO.
    7. Symeonidis, George, 2018. "Collusion, profitability and welfare: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 530-545.
    8. Yannis Katsoulacos & Evgenia Motchenkova & David Ulph, 2020. "Penalising on the Basis of the Severity of the Offence: A Sophisticated Revenue-Based Cartel Penalty," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(3), pages 627-646, November.
    9. Katsoulacos, Yannis & Motchenkova, Evgenia & Ulph, David, 2015. "Penalizing cartels: The case for basing penalties on price overcharge," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 70-80.
    10. Marcel Boyer & Anne Catherine Faye & Éric Gravel & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Guiding Principles in Setting Cartel Sanctions (The Working Paper Version)," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-18, CIRANO.
    11. Holler, Emanuel & Rickert, Dennis, 2022. "How resale price maintenance and loss leading affect upstream cartel stability: Anatomy of a coffee cartel," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Stephen Davies & Franco Mariuzzo & Peter L. Ormosi, 2018. "Quantifying The Deterrent Effect Of Anticartel Enforcement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 1933-1949, October.
    13. Ran Jing & Jiong Gong & Fang Yi, 2020. "Antitrust Fines: Experiences from China," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(1), pages 167-187, August.
    14. Ricardo Carvalho Lima & Guilherme Mendes Resende, 2021. "Using the Moran’s I to detect bid rigging in Brazilian procurement auctions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 237-254, April.

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    Keywords

    Antitrust; Cartel overcharges; Heckman; Heckit; Kullback-Leibler divergence; Meta-analysis; Antitrust; Surprix de cartel; Heckman; Heckit; Divergence de Kullback-Leibler; Meta-analyse;
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