IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chm/wpaper/wp2020-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Preparing to leave? Household mobility decisions in climate affected areas of coastal Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Arne Wiig
  • Minhaj Mahmud
  • Ivar Kolstad
  • Päivi Lujala
  • Sosina Bezu

Abstract

We present unique survey data on the migration predictions of 400 households in two extremely climate exposed unions of coastal Bangladesh. We have four main findings. First, despite having prospects no better than many low-lying pacific islands, few households in our two locations expect to relocate elsewhere over the coming five-year period. Second, to the extent that households predict they will move in the near future, they believe that fast onset events such as cyclones will be a main reason - not slow changing environmental factors like increasing soil salinity. Third, household migration predictions correlate non-linearly with household assets; the poorest and the richest households are the most likely to move. Fourth, results from an embedded discrete choice experiment suggest that the poor are more likely to migrate in scenarios where their wages are low, while the rich are more likely to migrate in scenarios where their earnings are high. One possible interpretation of these results is that the poor expect to migrate because and when they have to, while the rich expect to migrate because and when they can. Our discrete choice experiment confirms that households expect to move if there is considerable destruction of property from fast onset events, but not due to gradual erosion of environmental conditions. In sum, our results suggest that households in climate exposed regions to a limited extent perceive migration as an adaptation strategy to climate change. Acknowledgements The authors thank Rune Jansen Hagen, Katrin Millock and Solomon Walelign for helpful suggestions and comments.

Suggested Citation

  • Arne Wiig & Minhaj Mahmud & Ivar Kolstad & Päivi Lujala & Sosina Bezu, 2020. "Preparing to leave? Household mobility decisions in climate affected areas of coastal Bangladesh," CMI Working Papers 4, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
  • Handle: RePEc:chm:wpaper:wp2020-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/7237-preparing-to-leave-household-mobility-decisions-in-climate-affected-areas-of-coastal-bangladesh.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manchin, Miriam & Orazbayev, Sultan, 2018. "Social networks and the intention to migrate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-374.
    2. Dustmann, Christian & Okatenko, Anna, 2014. "Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 52-63.
    3. Mckenzie, David & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-24, September.
    4. M. Islam & Mehedi Hasan, 2016. "Climate-induced human displacement: a case study of Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1051-1071, March.
    5. Joyce J. Chen & Valerie Mueller & Yuanyuan Jia & Steven Kuo-Hsin Tseng, 2017. "Validating Migration Responses to Flooding Using Satellite and Vital Registration Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 441-445, May.
    6. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    7. Bishawjit Mallick & Joachim Vogt, 2014. "Population displacement after cyclone and its consequences: empirical evidence from coastal Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 191-212, September.
    8. Ivar Kolstad & Sosina Bezu & Päivi Lujala & Minhaj Mahmud & Arne Wiig, 2019. "Does changing the narrative improve host community attitudes to climate migrants? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh," CMI Working Papers 3, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    9. Chen Li, 2017. "Are the poor worse at dealing with ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 239-268, June.
    10. Koubi, Vally & Spilker, Gabriele & Schaffer, Lena & Bernauer, Thomas, 2016. "Environmental Stressors and Migration: Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 197-210.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tanvir Pavel & Syed Hasan & Nafisa Halim & Pallab Mozumder, 2018. "Natural Hazards and Internal Migration: The Role of Transient versus Permanent Shocks," Working Papers 1806, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    2. Michel Beine & Joël Machado & Ilse Ruyssen, 2020. "Do potential migrants internalize migrant rights in OECD host societies?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1429-1456, November.
    3. Simone BERTOLI & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hillel RAPOPORT & Ilse RUYSSEN, 2019. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis," Working Paper c5999d24-4da2-42c5-8c94-e, Agence française de développement.
    4. Smith, Michael D. & Floro, Maria S., 2020. "Food insecurity, gender, and international migration in low- and middle-income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Guriev, Sergei & Vakulenko, Elena, 2015. "Breaking out of poverty traps: Internal migration and interregional convergence in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 633-649.
    6. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    7. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Arusha Cooray & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Does corruption promote emigration? An empirical examination," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 293-310, January.
    9. Maria Waldinger, 2015. "The effects of climate change on internal and international migration: implications for developing countries," GRI Working Papers 192, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    10. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," IZA Discussion Papers 11978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Michel Beine & Arnaud Dupuy & Majlinda Joxhe, 2020. "Migration intentions: Data from a Field Study in Albania," CREA Discussion Paper Series 20-14, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    12. Ashira Menashe Oren, 2020. "Migrant-based youth bulges and social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(3), pages 57-98.
    13. Clemens, Michael A. & Mendola, Mariapia, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox," IZA Discussion Papers 13612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    15. Lanati, Mauro & Thiele, Rainer, 2020. "International Student Flows from Developing Countries: Do Donors Have an Impact?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Manchin, Miriam & Orazbayev, Sultan, 2018. "Social networks and the intention to migrate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-374.
    17. Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire & Frédéric Docquier, 2020. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-01, LISER.
    18. Léa Marchal & Claire Naiditch, 2020. "How Borrowing Constraints Hinder Migration: Theoretical Insights from a Random Utility Maximization Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 732-761, April.
    19. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 7417, CESifo.
    20. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence Using Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change migrants;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chm:wpaper:wp2020-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Robert Sjursen). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cmiiino.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.