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Stress Tests for Banking Sector: A Technical Note

  • Rodrigo Alfaro
  • Andrés Sagner

Credit and market risks are crucial for financial institutions. In this paper we present the model used by the Central Bank of Chile to conduct the stress tests for commercial banks in Chile. Market risk uses a balance-sheet approach that is consistent with the credit risk. For exchange rate risk we consider a change in the value of the portfolio under an unexpected change in the exchange rate by X%, meanwhile the interest rate risk is computed using a model for the whole yield curve. In particular, the modeling of this risk follows Nelson and Siegel (1987). Credit risk is computed using a non-linear VAR that relates banking system aggregates (loan loss provisions, credit growth, and write-offs) with macroeconomics variables (output growth, short and long term interest rates, terms of trade, and unemployment). For each Financial Stability Report (FSR) the model is calibrated using data from 1997 to the most recent date at monthly frequency. The effect on individual banks is computed adjusting the loan loss provision and total loans of each bank with the forecast value for the system. Given that forecasts are separated by type of loans (commercial, mortgage, and consumer) then the final effect on a particular bank depend on its initial composition.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 610.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:610
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  1. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1998. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor In Bond Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 62-72, February.
  2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  3. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The Cyclical Behaviour of European Bank Capital Buffers," SIFR Research Report Series 56, Institute for Financial Research.
  4. Francesco D'Arack & Sandrine Levasseur, 2007. "The Determinants of Capital Buffers in CEECs," Sciences Po publications N°2007-28, Sciences Po.
  5. Robert Shimer, 2008. "The Probability of Finding a Job," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 268-73, May.
  6. C. H. Furfine, 2000. "Evidence on the response of US banks to changes in capital requirements," BIS Working Papers 88, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Suhejla Hoti & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2009. "Measuring the Volatility in U.S. Treasury Benchmarks and Debt Instruments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 522-554.
  8. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
  9. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  10. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  11. Alfaro, Rodrigo A., 2011. "Affine Nelson-Siegel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 1-3, January.
  12. Heid, Frank, 2005. "Cyclical implications of minimum capital requirements," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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