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Convergence and Long Run Uncertainty

  • Pablo Pincheira

In this paper the neoclassical convergence hypothesis is tested for the thirteen regions of Chile using crosssection and time-series techniques. Cross-section analysis in combination with a Bayesian Modeling Averaging strategy supports the convergence hypothesis, despite of some instability detected in the estimated speed of convergence. When applying time-series based tests, the no convergence null hypothesis cannot be rejected at usual significance levels. When clustering the Chilean regions into three different groups, however, evidence of cointegration within these groups is found, indicating that the regional growth process in Chile is driven by a lower number of common trends. The implementation of both cross-section and time-series tests allows coverage of two different situations: economies in transition dynamics and economies in stationary distribution. Because cross-section and time-series tests place different implications on the data one can claim that under the assumption that Chilean regions are in transition towards a stationary distribution, the convergence hypothesis is supported by the data. If one assumes, however, that Chilean regions already achieved their limiting distribution, the convergence hypothesis is not supported by the data.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 391.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:391
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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  2. Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9419 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2002. "Is There Enough Evidence Against Absolute Convergence?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 176, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Carlos Oyarzún & Iván Araya, 2001. "Long run dynamics of regional growth in Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 69-78, June.
  7. Roberto Duncan & J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Convergencia Regional en Chile: Nuevos Tests, Viejos Resultados," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 313, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Durlauf, S.M. & Johnson, P.A., 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behavior," Working papers 9419r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Roberto Duncan & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Regional Convergence in Chile: New Tests, Old Results," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 81-112.
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