Emerging Market Economies: The Aftermath of Volatility Contagion in a Selection of Three Financial Crises
This paper examines the volatility contagion resulting from intra- and inter- regional links among emerging economies, on the basis of three major financial crises, namely Mexico 1994, East Asia 1997 and Argentina 2002. In particular, it presents a methodology that uses the sovereign bond spread as the financial time series to determine the impact of the volatility of the first-infected country on the behaviour of other emerging economies. Our main results reveal that only the Asia 1997 crisis had negative effects —both within and outside the region— on other emerging economies, in the form of increased sovereign spread volatility. On the other hand, the crises of Mexico 1994 and Argentina 2002 seem to have caused a minor additional effect on the stability of international markets for emerging bonds.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Dooley, Michael P, 2000.
"A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-72, January.
- Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Amadou N. R. Sy, 2001.
"Emerging Market Bond Spreads and Sovereign Credit Ratings; Reconciling Market Views with Economic Fundamentals,"
IMF Working Papers
01/165, International Monetary Fund.
- Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hernandez, Leonardo F. & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2001. "What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 203-218.
- Rodrigo O. ValdÃ©s & Leonardo HernÃ¡ndez, 2001. "What Drives Contagion; Trade Neighborhood, or Financial Links?," IMF Working Papers 01/29, International Monetary Fund.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 1999. "Creditor Panic, Asset Bubbles and Sharks: Three Views of the Asian Crisis," CSGR Hot Topics: Research on Current Issues 07, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.