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Building Confidence Intervals for the Band-Pass and Hodrick-Prescott Filters: An Application Using Bootstrapping


  • Francisco A. Gallego
  • Christian A. Johnson


This article generates innovative confidence intervals for two of the most popular de trending methods: Hodrick-Prescott and Band-Pass filters. The confidence intervals are obtained using block-bootstrapping techniques for dependent data. As an example, we present GDP trend growth and output gap intervals for the G7 economies. This new methodology will increase the usefulness of these filters by overcoming the absence of confidence intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco A. Gallego & Christian A. Johnson, 2003. "Building Confidence Intervals for the Band-Pass and Hodrick-Prescott Filters: An Application Using Bootstrapping," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 202, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:202

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2005. "Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-081/4, Tinbergen Institute.

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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