IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/627.html

British business cycles, 1270-1870

Author

Listed:
  • Broadberry, Stephen

    (University of Oxford)

  • Campbell, Bruce M. S.

    (The Queen's University of Belfast)

  • Klein, Alexander

    (University of Kent)

  • Overton, Mark

    (University of Exeter)

  • Leeuwen, Bas van

    (University of Utrecht)

Abstract

Annual estimates of GDP constructed from the output side are used to analyse British business cycles between 1270 and 1870. After c.1670 the scale of recessions tended to diminish as the economy grew, diversified and became more resilient. Until c.1730, business cycles were driven largely by agricultural fluctuations, but shocks to industry and commerce became more important over time as the structure of the economy changed. A number of severe recessions can be identified, associated with harvest failures, disease outbreaks, wars and disruptions to commerce. Monetary and financial factors also played a role in some of these severe recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Broadberry, Stephen & Campbell, Bruce M. S. & Klein, Alexander & Overton, Mark & Leeuwen, Bas van, 2022. "British business cycles, 1270-1870," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 627, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp627.2022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    • Stephen Broadberry & Bruce M. S. Campbell & Alexander Klein & Mark Overton & Bas van Leeuwen, 2026. "British business cycles, 1270–1870," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 20(1), pages 37-68, January.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer.
    2. Jane Humphries & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Unreal Wages? Real Income and Economic Growth in England, 1260–1850," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2867-2887.
    3. Steve Hindle, 2008. "Dearth and the English revolution: the harvest crisis of 1647–50," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 61(s1), pages 64-98, August.
    4. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 151-162, November.
    5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    6. Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2004. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1654-1668, December.
    7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
    8. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    9. Sabine Schneider, 2022. "The politics of last resort lending and the Overend & Gurney crisis of 1866," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 579-600, May.
    10. Bordo, Michael D. & White, Eugene N., 1991. "A Tale of Two Currencies: British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 303-316, June.
    11. Campbell, Bruce M.S. & Gráda, Cormac Ó, 2011. "Harvest Shortfalls, Grain Prices, and Famines in Preindustrial England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 859-886, December.
    12. Ryland Thomas & Sally Hills & Nicholas Dimsdale, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.
    13. Norman J. Silberling, 1924. "Financial and Monetary Policy of Great Britain During the Napoleonic Wars," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 38(3), pages 397-439.
    14. Pamela Nightingale, 1990. "Monetary contraction and mercantile credit in later medieval England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 43(4), pages 560-575, November.
    15. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    16. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2867-2887. is not listed on IDEAS
    17. M. J. Stephenson, 1988. "Wool yields in the medieval economy," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 41(3), pages 368-391, August.
    18. Norman J. Silberling, 1924. "Financial and Monetary Policy of Great Britain During the Napoleonic Wars," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 38(2), pages 214-233.
    19. C. E. Challis, 1967. "The Debasement of the Coinage, 1542-1551," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 20(3), pages 441-455, December.
    20. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui & Li, David Daokui, 2018. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 955-1000, December.
    21. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & van Leeuwen, Bas, 2012. "Persistent but not consistent: The growth of national income in Holland 1347–1807," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 119-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2024. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Stephan, Ute & Strauss, Karoline & Gorgievski, Marjan J. & Wach, Dominika, 2024. "How entrepreneurs influence their employees’ job satisfaction: The double-edged sword of proactive personality," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick K. O'Brien & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 305-329, February.
    2. Korap, Levent, 2010. "A small scaled business-cycle analysis of the Turkish economy: some counter-cyclical evidence using new income series," MPRA Paper 28647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    4. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case," MPRA Paper 21717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Robert G. King, 1995. "Quantitative theory and econometrics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-105.
    6. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    7. Joshua R. Hendrickson, 2018. "The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 203-241, February.
    8. Pamfili Antipa & Christophe Chamley, 2017. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in England during the French Wars (1793-1821)," Working papers 627, Banque de France.
    9. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2024. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
    11. Spree, Reinhard, 2002. "Business Cycles in History," Discussion Papers in Economics 6, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Yuriy Mishchenko, 2014. "Oscillations in Rational Economies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-6, February.
    13. Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2024. "On the Hamilton-HP Filter Controversy: Evidence from German Business Cycles," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(3), pages 367-409, November.
    14. Chigozie Chukwu & Aleksandar Vasilev & Shrabani Saha, 2024. "Measuring Business Cycle Stylized Facts in Selected Oil-Producing Economies: A Comparative Study," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 89-121, August.
    15. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    16. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(2), pages 229-250, November.
    17. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
    19. Ertz, Guy, 1996. "Business Cycle Models and Stylized Facts in Germany," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1997005, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 00 Apr 1997.
    20. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.