IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/612.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hidden hazards and Screening Policy: Predicting Undetected Lead Exposure in Illinois Using Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Abbasi, A

    (University of California San Francisco)

  • DiTraglia, F

    (University of Oxford)

  • Gazze, L

    (University of Warwick)

  • Pals, B

    (New York University)

Abstract

Lead exposure still threatens children’s health despite policies aiming to identify lead exposure sources. Some US states require de jure universal screening while others target screening, but little research examines the relative benefits of these approaches. We link lead tests for children born in Illinois between 2010 and 2014 to geocoded birth records and potential exposure sources. We train a random forest regression model that predicts children’s blood lead levels (BLLs) to estimate the geographic distribution of undetected lead poisoning. We use these estimates to compare de jure universal screening against targeted screening. Because no policy achieves perfect compliance, we analyze different incremental screening expansions. We estimate that 6,626 untested children had a BLL≥ 5µ/dL, in addition to the 18,115 detected cases. 83% of these undetected cases should have been screened under the current policy. Model-based targeted screening can improve upon both the status quo and expanded universal screening.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbasi, A & DiTraglia, F & Gazze, L & Pals, B, 2022. "Hidden hazards and Screening Policy: Predicting Undetected Lead Exposure in Illinois Using Machine Learning," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 612, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp612.2022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Tamar Oostrom & Abigail Ostriker & Heidi Williams, 2020. "Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3836-3870, December.
    2. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2015. "Lead Exposure And Behavior: Effects On Antisocial And Risky Behavior Among Children And Adolescents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1580-1605, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abbasi, Ali & DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gazze, Ludovica & Pals, Bridget, 2023. "Hidden hazards and screening policy: Predicting undetected lead exposure in Illinois," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Abbasi, Ali & Gazze, Ludovica & Pals, Bridget, 2022. "Hidden hazards and Screening Policy : Predicting Undetected Lead Exposure in Illinois Using Machine Learning," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1398, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Joseph P. Newhouse, 2021. "An Ounce of Prevention," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 101-118, Spring.
    4. Marianne P. Bitler & Christopher S. Carpenter & Danea Horn, 2021. "Effects of the Colorectal Cancer Control Program," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(11), pages 2667-2685, November.
    5. Gazze, Ludovica & Persico, Claudia & Spirovska, Sandra, 2021. "The Long-Run Spillover Effects of Pollution: How Exposure to Lead Affects Everyone in the Classroom," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 561, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    6. Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2016. "Crime, the Criminal Justice System, and Socioeconomic Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 103-126, Spring.
    7. Alex Hollingsworth & Mike Huang & Ivan J. Rudik & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2020. "A Thousand Cuts: Cumulative Lead Exposure Reduces Academic Achievement," NBER Working Papers 28250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gazze, Ludovica & Heissel, Jennifer, 2021. "Infrastructure upgrades and lead exposure: Do cities face trade-offs when replacing water mains?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Divya Sadana, 2020. "Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Pollution on Crime: Evidence from 1970 Clean Air Act," 2020 Papers psa1864, Job Market Papers.
    10. Higney, Anthony & Hanley, Nick & Moro, Mirko, 2022. "The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Alex Coad & Gianluca Biggi & Elisa Giuliani, 2021. "Asbestos, leaded petrol, and other aberrations: comparing countries’ regulatory responses to disapproved products and technologies," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 201-233, February.
    12. Divya Sadana, 2023. "Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Pollution on Crime: Evidence from 1970 Clean Air Act," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 279-312, January.
    13. Aidan R. Vining, 2016. "What Is Public Agency Strategic Analysis (PASA) and How Does It Differ from Public Policy Analysis and Firm Strategy Analysis?," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-31, December.
    14. Rafkin, Charlie & Shreekumar, Advik & Vautrey, Pierre-Luc, 2021. "When guidance changes: Government stances and public beliefs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Jason Abaluck & Leila Agha & David C. Chan Jr & Daniel Singer & Diana Zhu, 2020. "Fixing Misallocation with Guidelines: Awareness vs. Adherence," NBER Working Papers 27467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Eleanor Corkum & Tiffanie Perrault & Erin C. Strumpf, 2023. "Improving Breast Cancer Diagnosis Pathways in Quebec," CIRANO Project Reports 2023rp-22, CIRANO.
    17. Malvina Bondy & Sefi Roth & Lutz Sager, 2020. "Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585.
    18. Adejoke Christianah Olufemi & Andile Mji & Murembiwa Stanley Mukhola, 2022. "Potential Health Risks of Lead Exposure from Early Life through Later Life: Implications for Public Health Education," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-21, November.
    19. ZHAO Meng (KONISHI Moe), 2023. "Does Free Cancer Screening Make a Difference? Evidence from the effects of a free-coupon program in Japan," Discussion papers 23067, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Stephen B. Billings & Kevin T. Schnepel, 2018. "Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 315-344, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lead Poisoning; Environmental Health; Screening JEL Classification: I18 ; D61;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.