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Hidden hazards and Screening Policy: Predicting Undetected Lead Exposure in Illinois Using Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Abbasi, A

    (University of California San Francisco)

  • DiTraglia, F

    (University of Oxford)

  • Gazze, L

    (University of Warwick)

  • Pals, B

    (New York University)

Abstract

Lead exposure still threatens children’s health despite policies aiming to identify lead exposure sources. Some US states require de jure universal screening while others target screening, but little research examines the relative benefits of these approaches. We link lead tests for children born in Illinois between 2010 and 2014 to geocoded birth records and potential exposure sources. We train a random forest regression model that predicts children’s blood lead levels (BLLs) to estimate the geographic distribution of undetected lead poisoning. We use these estimates to compare de jure universal screening against targeted screening. Because no policy achieves perfect compliance, we analyze different incremental screening expansions. We estimate that 6,626 untested children had a BLL≥ 5µ/dL, in addition to the 18,115 detected cases. 83% of these undetected cases should have been screened under the current policy. Model-based targeted screening can improve upon both the status quo and expanded universal screening.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbasi, A & DiTraglia, F & Gazze, L & Pals, B, 2022. "Hidden hazards and Screening Policy: Predicting Undetected Lead Exposure in Illinois Using Machine Learning," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 612, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:612
    as

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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp612.2022.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Tamar Oostrom & Abigail Ostriker & Heidi Williams, 2020. "Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3836-3870, December.
    2. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2015. "Lead Exposure And Behavior: Effects On Antisocial And Risky Behavior Among Children And Adolescents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1580-1605, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lead Poisoning; Environmental Health; Screening JEL Classification: I18 ; D61;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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