IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_8981.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hidden in Plain Sight: Influential Sets in Linear Models

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolas Kuschnig
  • Gregor Zens
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

Abstract

Assessing the robustness of the results of econometric analysis is a long standing subject of lively research. The majority of the literature focuses on sensitivity to model specification, while the quantification of sensitivity to sets of influential observations has received relatively little attention. A major obstacle in this context is masking, a phenomenon where influential observations obscure each other, which makes their identification particularly challenging. We show how inferential measures are affected by influential sets of observations and present two adaptive algorithms aimed at identifying such sets. We demonstrate the merits of these algorithms via simulation studies and empirical applications. These exercises show that masking problems and a pronounced sensitivity to influential sets are present in a wide range of scenarios. Overall, our findings suggest that increased attention to influential sets is warranted and comprehensive robustness measures for regression analysis are required.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolas Kuschnig & Gregor Zens & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2021. "Hidden in Plain Sight: Influential Sets in Linear Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 8981, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8981
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8981.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    2. Tamara Broderick & Ryan Giordano & Rachael Meager, 2020. "An Automatic Finite-Sample Robustness Metric: When Can Dropping a Little Data Make a Big Difference?," Papers 2011.14999, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    3. Alessandro Tarozzi & Jaikishan Desai & Kristin Johnson, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Ethiopia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 54-89, January.
    4. Sung-Soo Kim & Sung Park & W. J. Krzanowski, 2008. "Simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression using the mean-shift outlier model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 283-291.
    5. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    6. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    7. Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Heike Harmgart & Costas Meghir, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 183-203, January.
    8. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    9. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
    10. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    11. Manuela Angelucci & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Microcredit Impacts: Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 151-182, January.
    12. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    13. Misselhorn, Mark & Klasen, Stephan, 2006. "Determinants of the Growth Semi-Elasticity of Poverty Reduction," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    15. Martin Ravallion, 2012. "Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 504-523, February.
    16. Sung-Soo Kim & W. Krzanowski, 2007. "Detecting multiple outliers in linear regression using a cluster method combined with graphical visualization," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 109-119, April.
    17. Jonathan Morduch, 1999. "The Microfinance Promise," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1569-1614, December.
    18. Hoeting, Jennifer & Raftery, Adrian E. & Madigan, David, 1996. "A method for simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 251-270, July.
    19. Edward E. Leamer, 2010. "Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 31-46, Spring.
    20. Rachael Meager, 2019. "Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Seven Randomized Experiments," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 57-91, January.
    21. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Emla Fitzsimons & Heike Harmgart, 2015. "The Impacts of Microfinance: Evidence from Joint-Liability Lending in Mongolia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 90-122, January.
    22. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    23. Meager, Rachael, 2019. "Understanding the average impact of microcredit expansions: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of seven randomized experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88190, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Stephan Klasen & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2022. "When Do We See Poverty Convergence?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1283-1301, December.
    2. Gabriel Okasa & Kenneth A. Younge, 2022. "Sample Fit Reliability," Papers 2209.06631, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.
    2. Meager, Rachael, 2022. "Aggregating distributional treatment effects: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the microcredit literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115559, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Abhijit Banerjee & Emily Breza & Esther Duflo & Cynthia Kinnan, 2019. "Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap for Some Entrepreneurs?," NBER Working Papers 26346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Daniel Bjorkegren & Joshua Blumenstock & Omowunmi Folajimi-Senjobi & Jacqueline Mauro & Suraj R. Nair, 2022. "Instant Loans Can Lift Subjective Well-Being: A Randomized Evaluation of Digital Credit in Nigeria," Papers 2202.13540, arXiv.org.
    5. Tamara Broderick & Ryan Giordano & Rachael Meager, 2020. "An Automatic Finite-Sample Robustness Metric: When Can Dropping a Little Data Make a Big Difference?," Papers 2011.14999, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    6. Bernardus Van Doornik & Armando Gomes & David Schoenherr & Janis Skrastins, 2021. "Financial Access and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Credit Lotteries," Working Papers 2021-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    7. Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik & Armando Gomes & David Schoenherr & Janis Skrastins, 2023. "Financial access and labor market outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries," BIS Working Papers 1071, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Dahal, Mahesh & Fiala, Nathan, 2020. "What do we know about the impact of microfinance? The problems of statistical power and precision," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Gabriel Okasa & Kenneth A. Younge, 2022. "Sample Fit Reliability," Papers 2209.06631, arXiv.org.
    10. Lucia Dalla Pellegrina & Giorgio Di Maio & Paolo Landoni & Emanuele Rusinà, 2021. "Money management and entrepreneurial training in microfinance: impact on beneficiaries and institutions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1049-1085, October.
    11. Nakano, Yuko & Magezi, Eustadius F., 2020. "The impact of microcredit on agricultural technology adoption and productivity: Evidence from randomized control trial in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Agbloyor, Elikplimi & Asongu, Simplice & Muriu, Peter, 2021. "Sustainability, Growth and Impact of MFIs in Africa," MPRA Paper 111752, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Baulia, Susmita, 2019. "Take-up of joint and individual liability loans: An analysis with laboratory experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Morduch, Jonathan, 2020. "Why RCTs failed to answer the biggest questions about microcredit impact," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Dagmara Celik Katreniak & Alexey Khazanov & Omer Moav & Zvika Neeman & Hosny Zoabi, 2023. "Why Not Borrow, Invest, and Escape Poverty?," Papers 2305.02546, arXiv.org.
    16. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2021. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1447-1497.
    17. N'dri, Lasme Mathieu & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2020. "Financial inclusion, mobile money, and individual welfare: The case of Burkina Faso," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    18. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae Lee & Daniel Wilhelm, 2020. "Optimal data collection for randomized control trials [Microcredit impacts: Evidence from a randomized microcredit program placement experiment by Compartamos Banco]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 1-31.
    19. Ahlin, Christian & Gulesci, Selim & Madestam, Andreas & Stryjan, Miri, 2020. "Loan contract structure and adverse selection: Survey evidence from Uganda," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 180-195.
    20. Gyorgy Molnar & Attila Havas, 2019. "Escaping from the poverty trap with social innovation: a social microcredit programme in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1912, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regression diagnostics; robustness; masking; influence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.