IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7761.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change Expectations and Endogenous Economic Growth in the DICE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Sophia Ciesielski

Abstract

This paper studies the investment based growth rate effects of climate change. The analysis is based on the Integrated Assessment Model DICE by Nordhaus (2008). I depart from the original model, in that endogenous investments into a knowledge stock drive economic growth. Due to a negative capital accumulation as well as savings effect on the knowledge stock, climate change has a negative impact on gross income that lasts into the long run. In order to be able to quantify the growth rate effects, I calibrate the endogenous growth model version of DICE towards its exogenous growth counterpart. I find that in the exogenous growth model version of DICE, compared to its endogenous growth equivalent, in the social optimum, gross income is over-estimated by 2.3 % in 2100 and by 6.8 % in 2150.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Sophia Ciesielski, 2019. "Climate Change Expectations and Endogenous Economic Growth in the DICE Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 7761, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7761
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7761.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & S.J. Tol, Richard, 2005. "On climate change and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Frances C. Moore & Delavane B. Diaz, 2015. "Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 127-131, February.
    3. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2015. "Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus' Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 574-620, March.
    4. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2003. "Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-57, February.
    5. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    6. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Shiell, Leslie & Lyssenko, Nikita, 2008. "Computing business-as-usual with a representative agent and a pollution externality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1543-1568, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hélène Benveniste & Michael Oppenheimer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2022. "Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 634-641, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    2. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    3. Hallegatte,Stephane & Jooste,Charl & Mcisaac,Florent John, 2022. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters : A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floodsand Earthquakes in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9943, The World Bank.
    4. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    5. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Matthew Agarwala & Josh Martin, 2022. "Environmentally-adjusted productivity measures for the UK," Working Papers 028, The Productivity Institute.
    7. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    8. Hiroaki Sakamoto & Masako Ikefuji & Jan R. Magnus, 2020. "Adaptation for Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(3), pages 457-484, March.
    9. Tsigaris, Panagiotis & Wood, Joel, 2019. "The potential impacts of climate change on capital in the 21st century," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 74-86.
    10. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    12. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    13. Tsigaris, Panagiotis & Wood, Joel, 2016. "A simple climate-Solow model for introducing the economics of climate change to undergraduate students," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 65-81.
    14. Li Chen & Bin Jiang & Chuan Wang, 2023. "Climate change and urban total factor productivity: evidence from capital cities and municipalities in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 401-441, July.
    15. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    16. Luca Gerotto & Paolo Pellizzari, 2021. "A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the efforts required to obtain results," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(5), pages 1-25, May.
    17. Yongyang Cai & William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Climate Change Impact on Economic Growth: Regional Climate Policy under Cooperation and Noncooperation," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 569-605.
    18. Letta, Marco & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Tol, Richard S.J., 2018. "Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 13-32.
    19. Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Jüppner, Marcus & Kizys, Renatas, 2021. "Global temperature, R&D expenditure, and growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2021. "Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous economic growth and climate change;

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.