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IMF Credit: How Important Are Political Factors? A Robustness Analysis


  • Jan-Egbert Sturm
  • Helge Berger
  • Jakob de Haan


We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as well as investment are robustly related to IMF credit supply. Arguably, these results are broadly consistent with the IMF’s mission. The only political variables which appear to be related to changes in IMF credit are government stability, the quality of the bureaucracy, and a dummy variable indicating the extent of political opposition. Possible interpretations of these findings are discussed.

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  • Jan-Egbert Sturm & Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 2002. "IMF Credit: How Important Are Political Factors? A Robustness Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 642, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_642

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    2. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hagen, Rune Jansen, 2009. "Basic analytics of multilateral lending and surveillance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 126-136, September.
    2. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.

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    IMF credit; political economy.;


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