IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4626.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conservatism Correction for the Market-To-Book Ratio and Tobin's q

Author

Listed:
  • Maureen McNichols
  • Madhav V. Rajan
  • Stefan Reichelstein

Abstract

We decompose the market-to-book ratio into two additive components: a conservatism correction factor and a future-to-book ratio. The conservatism correction factor exceeds the benchmark value of one whenever the accounting for past transactions has been subject to an (unconditional) conservatism bias. The observed history of a firm’s past investments allows us to calculate the magnitude of its conservatism correction factor, resulting in an average value that is about two-thirds of the overall market-to-book ratio. We demonstrate that our measure of Tobin’s q, obtained as the market-to-book ratio divided by the conservatism correction factor, has greater explanatory power in predicting future investments than the market-to-book ratio by itself. Our model analysis derives a number of structural properties of the conservatism correction factor, including its sensitivity to growth in past investments, the percentage of investments in intangibles, and the firm’s cost of capital. We provide empirical support for these hypothesized structural properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Maureen McNichols & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2014. "Conservatism Correction for the Market-To-Book Ratio and Tobin's q," CESifo Working Paper Series 4626, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4626
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4626.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    2. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
    3. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    6. William P. Rogerson, 2008. "Intertemporal Cost Allocation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 931-950, October.
    7. Ohlson, James & Gao, Zhan, 2006. "Earnings, Earnings Growth and Value," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-70, August.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    9. repec:bla:joares:v:38:y:2000:i::p:1-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:bla:joares:v:38:y:2000:i:1:p:127-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Alexander Nezlobin, 2012. "Accrual Accounting, Informational Sufficiency, and Equity Valuation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 233-273, March.
    12. Rogerson, William P, 1997. "Intertemporal Cost Allocation and Managerial Investment Incentives: A Theory Explaining the Use of Economic Value Added as a Performance Measure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 770-795, August.
    13. Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2009. "Depreciation Rules and the Relation between Marginal and Historical Cost," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 823-865, June.
    14. repec:bla:joares:v:34:y:1996:i:2:p:209-234 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:bla:joares:v:34:y:1996:i:2:p:235-259 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    17. Lev, Baruch & Sougiannis, Theodore, 1996. "The capitalization, amortization, and value-relevance of R&D," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 107-138, February.
    18. Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2000. "Conservative accounting and equity valuation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 125-149, February.
    19. Joshua D. Rauh, 2006. "Investment and Financing Constraints: Evidence from the Funding of Corporate Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 33-71, February.
    20. STEPHEN H. PENMAN & SCOTT A. RICHARDSON & İREM TUNA, 2007. "The Book-to-Price Effect in Stock Returns: Accounting for Leverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 427-467, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:reaccs:v:22:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11142-017-9402-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alexander Nezlobin & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2016. "Structural properties of the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 438-472, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.