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The Effect of Vehicle Taxes on Fleet Exit

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Gehrsitz
  • Christian Traxler

Abstract

This paper studies how vehicle taxation shapes fleet exit. We exploit Germany's 2008/9 circulation tax reform, which generated a sharp discontinuity in annual tax liabilities at a registration cutoff date. Using administrative micro-data covering the universe of registered vehicles during the second half of 2008, we apply a difference-in-discontinuities design to estimate the effect of annual circulation taxes on permanent deregistrations. A 10 percent higher tax increases the share of deregistered vehicles after six years by about 2.8 percent. Duration analyses exploiting within-model variation in taxes yield closely consistent estimates. The effect seems to be mainly driven by exports rather than vehicle retirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Gehrsitz & Christian Traxler, 2026. "The Effect of Vehicle Taxes on Fleet Exit," CESifo Working Paper Series 12815, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12815
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    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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