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Strategic Uncertainty and Sequential Play

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Listed:
  • Ala Avoyan
  • Daniela Valdivia

Abstract

The paper examines how the timing of decisions shapes outcomes in coordination settings. Theoretically, the outcomes become predictable and efficient when decisions are made sequentially rather than simultaneously. Our experimental evidence shows that sequential moves promote remarkably high efficiency, and these effects are far less sensitive to increased group size. A key finding is that the sequential structure alters the distribution of strategic uncertainty in a group, aggregating it and allocating most of it to the first mover. Dynamic measures further reveal that coordination failures under simultaneous moves stem from weak resilience to setbacks rather than fragility of equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Ala Avoyan & Daniela Valdivia, 2025. "Strategic Uncertainty and Sequential Play," CESifo Working Paper Series 12198, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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