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Investment Uncertainty, and Production Games

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  • Sjur Didrik Flåm
  • Yuri Ermoliev

Abstract

This paper explores some cooperative aspects of investments in uncertain, real options. Key production factors are assumed transferable. They may reflect property or user rights. Emission of pollutants and harvest of renewable resources are cases in point. Of particular interest are alternative projects or technologies that provide inferior but anti-correlated returns. Any such project stabilizes the aggregate proceeds. Therefore, given widespread risk exposure and aversion, that project’s worth may embody an extra bonus. The setting is formalized as a stochastic production game. Granted no economies of scale such games are quite tractable in analysis, computation, and realization. A core imputation comes in terms of contingent shadow prices that equilibrate competitive, endogenous markets. The said prices emerge as optimal dual solutions to coordinated production programs, featuring pooled resources - and also via adaptive procedures. Extra value - or an insurance premium - adds to any project whose yield is negatively associated with the aggregate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sjur Didrik Flåm & Yuri Ermoliev, 2004. "Investment Uncertainty, and Production Games," CESifo Working Paper Series 1191, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evstigneev, I.V. & Flam, S.D., 2000. "Sharing Nonconvex Costs," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 1300, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    2. Ermoliev, Yuri & Klaassen, Ger & Nentjes, Andries, 1996. "Adaptive Cost-Effective Ambient Charges under Incomplete Information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-48, July.
    3. Kolstad, Charles D. & Guzman, Rolando M., 1999. "Information and the Divergence between Willingness to Accept and Willingness to Pay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 66-80, July.
    4. Evstigneev, I.V. & Flam, S.D., 2000. "Stochastic Programming: Non-Anticipativity and Lagrange Multipliers," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 1100, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    5. Shapley, Lloyd S. & Shubik, Martin, 1969. "On market games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 9-25, June.
    6. Dixit, Avinash & Pindyck, Robert S & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1999. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Investment Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 179-189, April.
    7. Y. Ermoliev & M. Michalevich & A. Nentjes, 2000. "Markets for Tradeable Emission and Ambient Permits: A Dynamic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 15(1), pages 39-56, January.
    8. Arrow, Kenneth J & Lind, Robert C, 1970. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 364-378, June.
    9. Magill, Michael & Shafer, Wayne, 1991. "Incomplete markets," Handbook of Mathematical Economics,in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 1523-1614 Elsevier.
    10. Ermoliev, Yu. & Keyzer, M. A. & Norkin, V., 2000. "Global convergence of the stochastic tatonnement process," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 173-190, October.
    11. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
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    Keywords

    investment; risk attitudes; insurance; covariance-pricing; cooperative games; core; stochastic optimization;

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