IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11787.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Memory Premium

Author

Listed:
  • Yuval Salant
  • Jörg L. Spenkuch
  • David Almog

Abstract

We explore the role of memory for choice behavior in unfamiliar environments. Using a unique data set, we document that decision makers exhibit a “memory premium.” They tend to choose in-memory alternatives over out-of-memory ones, even when the latter are objectively better. Consistent with well-established regularities regarding the inner workings of human memory, the memory premium is associative, subject to interference and repetition effects, and decays over time. Even as decision makers gain familiarity with the environment, the memory premium remains economically large. Our results imply that the ease with which past experiences come to mind plays an important role in shaping choice behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuval Salant & Jörg L. Spenkuch & David Almog, 2025. "The Memory Premium," CESifo Working Paper Series 11787, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11787
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11787.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2014. "Stochastic Choice and Consideration Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 1153-1176, May.
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    3. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
    4. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 605-639.
    5. Gilboa,Itzhak & Schmeidler,David, 2001. "A Theory of Case-Based Decisions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802345, Enero-Abr.
    6. Enke, Benjamin & Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2024. "Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    8. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    9. Jessica A Wachter & Michael Jacob Kahana, 2024. "A Retrieved-Context Theory of Financial Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 1095-1147.
    10. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel & Jann Spiess, 2024. "Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3253-3285.
    11. Michael Woodford, 2020. "Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation, and Choice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 579-601, August.
    12. Zhengyang Jiang & Hongqi Liu & Cameron Peng & Hongjun Yan, 2024. "Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 33226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hassan Afrouzi & Spencer Y Kwon & Augustin Landier & Yueran Ma & David Thesmar, 2023. "Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(3), pages 1713-1764.
    14. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    15. Rava Azeredo da Silveira & Yeji Sung & Michael Woodford, 2024. "Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(10), pages 3075-3118, October.
    16. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    17. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    18. Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "A Memory-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 735-774.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Christoffersen & Arvid Hoffmann & Zwetelina Iliewa & Lena Jaroszek, 2025. "Experience Effects on Wall Street vs. Main Street: Field and Lab Evidence of Context Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_684, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Charles, Constantin, 2025. "Memory moves markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125551, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Minardi, Stefania & Savochkin, Andrei, 2024. "Time for memorable consumption," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 296-322.
    4. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    5. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2020. "Memory, Attention, and Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1399-1442.
    6. Pei Kuang & Li Tang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2025. "Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 657-685, March.
    7. Jessica A. Wachter & Michael Jacob Kahana, 2019. "A Retrieved-Context Theory Of Financial Decisions," NBER Working Papers 26200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.
    9. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sebastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 19239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Brit Grosskopf & Rajiv Sarin & Elizabeth Watson, 2015. "An experiment on case-based decision making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 639-666, December.
    12. Francesco Cerigioni, 2021. "Dual Decision Processes: Retrieving Preferences When Some Choices Are Automatic," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1667-1704.
    13. Constantin Charles & Cary Frydman & Mete Kilic, 2024. "Insensitive Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2473-2503, August.
    14. Oesinghaus, Andreas, 2024. "Analysts’ extrapolative expectations in the cross-section," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Bleile, Jörg, 2016. "Limited Attention in Case-Based Belief Formation," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 518, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    16. Go Fujii & Shogo Nakano & Kosuke Takatomi, 2025. "Households' Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Formation: The Role of Past Experience and Inflation Regimes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    17. Jonas Dovern & Alexander Glas & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "Testing for differences in survey‐based density expectations: A compositional data approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1104-1122, September.
    18. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Heinke, Steve & Olschewski, Sebastian & Rieskamp, Jörg, 2024. "Experiences, demand for risky investments, and implications for price dynamics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    20. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D87 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Neuroeconomics
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.