IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v138y2023i3p1713-1764..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan Afrouzi
  • Spencer Y Kwon
  • Augustin Landier
  • Yueran Ma
  • David Thesmar

Abstract

We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters’ information sets as well as the data-generating process, so we can cleanly measure biases in beliefs. We report three facts. First, forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Second, overreaction is stronger for less persistent processes. Third, overreaction is also stronger for longer forecast horizons. We develop a tractable model of expectations formation with costly processing of past information, which closely fits the empirical facts. We also perform additional experiments to test the mechanism of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Afrouzi & Spencer Y Kwon & Augustin Landier & Yueran Ma & David Thesmar, 2023. "Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(3), pages 1713-1764.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:3:p:1713-1764.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjad009
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Constantin & Frydman, Cary & Kilic, Mete, 2023. "Insensitive Investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120788, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Yves Breitmoser & Justin Valasek & Justin Mattias Valasek, 2023. "Why Do Committees Work?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10800, CESifo.
    3. Breitmoser, Yves & Valasek, Justin, 2023. "Why do committees work?," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 18/2023, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    4. Leland Bybee, 2023. "Surveying Generative AI's Economic Expectations," Papers 2305.02823, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:3:p:1713-1764.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/qje .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.