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Green Bond Returns and the Dynamics of Green and Conventional Financial Markets: An Analysis Using a Thick Pen

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Gronwald
  • Sania Wadud

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between green bond markets and both green and conventional financial markets, while also evaluating their effectiveness as a climate finance instrument. Using the Thick Pen Measure of Association — a visually interpretable tool for analysing co-movement across different time scales — we identify several key findings. First, the relationship between green bonds and other markets evolves over time, influenced by major events such as COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and earlier structural changes. Second, green bonds show the strongest co-movement with benchmark bond markets, indicating they are driven by similar fundamental factors. In contrast, their connection to stock markets is weaker and, in some cases, declining, reinforcing their potential as a diversification tool. However, short-term movements in the green bond market remain closely linked to the long-term stock market environment, particularly during periods of market stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Sania Wadud, 2025. "Green Bond Returns and the Dynamics of Green and Conventional Financial Markets: An Analysis Using a Thick Pen," CESifo Working Paper Series 11773, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ren, Xiaohang & Xiao, Ya & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2025. "Corrigendum to “Spillover effects between fossil energy and green markets: Evidence from informational inefficiency” [Energy EconomicsVolume 131, March 2024, 107317]," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Caroline Flammer, 2020. "Green Bonds: Effectiveness and Implications for Public Policy," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 95-128.
    3. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Jalalifar, Saba, 2021. "Financing the green projects: Market efficiency and volatility persistence of green versus conventional bonds, and the comparative effects of health and financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2020. "Price connectedness between green bond and financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-38.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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