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Minimum Wages and the Rise of the Robots

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Brynjolfsson
  • J. Frank Li
  • Javier Miranda
  • Robert Seamans
  • Andrew Wang

Abstract

This paper studies how minimum wage policy affects firms’ adoption of automation technologies. Using both state-level measures of robot exposure and novel plant-level data on industrial robot imports linked to U.S. Census microdata from 1992–2021, we show that increases in minimum wages raise the likelihood of robot adoption in manufacturing. Our preferred identification exploits discontinuities at state borders, comparing otherwise similar firms exposed to different wage floors. Across specifications, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption by roughly 8 percent relative to the mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Brynjolfsson & J. Frank Li & Javier Miranda & Robert Seamans & Andrew Wang, 2026. "Minimum Wages and the Rise of the Robots," Working Papers 26-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jay Dixon & Bryan Hong & Lynn Wu, 2021. "The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5586-5605, September.
    2. Lordan, Grace & Neumark, David, 2018. "People versus machines: The impact of minimum wages on automatable jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 40-53.
    3. Fan, Haichao & Hu, Yichuan & Tang, Lixin, 2021. "Labor costs and the adoption of robots in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 608-631.
    4. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2425, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    5. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 107909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Thomas J. Holmes, 1998. "The Effect of State Policies on the Location of Manufacturing: Evidence from State Borders," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 667-705, August.
    7. Harald Hau & Yi Huang & Gewei Wang, 2020. "Firm Response to Competitive Shocks: Evidence from China’s Minimum Wage Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2639-2671.
    8. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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