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Minimum Wages and the Rise of the Robots

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Brynjolfsson
  • J. Frank Li
  • Javier Miranda
  • Robert Seamans
  • Andrew Wang

Abstract

This paper studies how minimum wage policy affects firms’ adoption of automation technologies. Using both state-level measures of robot exposure and novel plant-level data on industrial robot imports linked to U.S. Census microdata from 1992–2021, we show that increases in minimum wages raise the likelihood of robot adoption in manufacturing. Our preferred identification exploits discontinuities at state borders, comparing otherwise similar firms exposed to different wage floors. Across specifications, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption by roughly 8 percent relative to the mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Brynjolfsson & J. Frank Li & Javier Miranda & Robert Seamans & Andrew Wang, 2026. "Minimum Wages and the Rise of the Robots," Working Papers 26-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-42
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2026/adrm/ces/CES-WP-26-42.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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