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Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

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  • Carolan, Terrie
  • Singh, Nirvikar

Abstract

We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tj8w5sg, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:qt0tj8w5sg
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colin I. Bradford, Jr. & William H. Branson, 1987. "Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad87-1, April.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    4. Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-248, April.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-162, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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