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Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?

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  • Gagnon, Joseph E
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral data for six countries, disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. The purpose of the paper is to compare predictions of persistent trade balances generated by theories of international trade, such as factor-proportions, with more dynamic theories such as the product cycle. Little evidence is found of dynamic trade behavior at the industry level between 1962 and 1990 for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) almost always remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-248, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:47:y:1995:i:2:p:229-48
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    Cited by:

    1. Ping HUA & YUE, 2001. "Does Comparative Advantage Explain Export Patterns in China?," Working Papers 200108, CERDI.
    2. Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar & Talati, Cyrus, 1998. "The composition of U.S.-East Asia trade and changing comparative advantage," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 361-389.
    3. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2014. "Global Trade Imbalances: A Network Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03n04), pages 1-29.
    4. Nirvikar Singh & Terrie Carolan, 2004. "Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," International Trade 0412003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carter, Colin A. & Li, Xianghong, 1999. "Economic Reform And The Changing Pattern Of China'S Agricultural Trade," Working Papers 11957, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Peter K. Schott, 2001. "Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data," NBER Working Papers 8492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andrea Szalavetz, 2002. "Some neglected effects of EU enlargements - rationalization and specialization," IWE Working Papers 129, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    8. Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2003. "On the Duration of Trade," NBER Working Papers 9936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lu, Chia-Hui, 2007. "Moving up or moving out? A unified theory of R&D, FDI, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 324-343, April.
    10. Taylor, J. Edward & Dyer, George A. & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2005. "Disaggregated Rural Economywide Models for Policy Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1671-1688, October.
    11. Terrie Carolan & Jesse Mora & Nirvikar Singh, 2013. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of US–East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962–1992," Millennial Asia, , vol. 4(1), pages 87-108, April.
    12. Carolan, Terrie & Mora, Jesse & Singh, Nirvikar, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," MPRA Paper 37124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lucio Biggiero & Roberto Urbani, 2022. "Testing the convergence hypothesis: a longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the world trade web through social network and statistical analyses," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 713-777, July.
    14. Erlat, Haluk, 2013. "A Time Series Analysis of Turkish Trade Patterns at the Sector Level," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 300, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    15. Carter, Colin A. & Li, Xianghong, 2002. "Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China’s agricultural trade patterns," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(2), pages 1-15.
    16. Xu, Xinpeng, 1999. "Do Stringent Environmental Regulations Reduce the International Competitiveness of Environmentally Sensitive Goods? A Global Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1215-1226, July.
    17. Zhu, Susan Chun, 2005. "Can product cycles explain skill upgrading?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 131-155, May.
    18. Colin Carter & Xianghong Li, 2004. "Changing trade patterns in major OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1501-1511.
    19. Harvey Cutler & Terutomo Ozawa, 2007. "The Dynamics Of The “Mature” Product Cycle And Market Reycling, Flying‐Geese Style: An Empirical Examination And Policy Implications," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 67-78, January.
    20. Yue, Changjun & Hua, Ping, 2002. "Does comparative advantage explains export patterns in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 276-296.
    21. An, Galina & Iyigun, Murat F., 2004. "The export technology content, learning by doing and specialization in foreign trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 465-483, December.

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