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Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India

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  • Carleton, Tamma A

Abstract

More than three quarters of the world's suicides occur in developing countries, yet little is known about the drivers of suicidal behavior in poor populations. I study India, where one fifth of global suicides occur and suicide rates have doubled since 1980. Using nationally comprehensive panel data over 47 y, I demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, particularly temperature, significantly influence suicide rates. For temperatures above 20 °C, a 1 °C increase in a single day's temperature causes ∼70 suicides, on average. This effect occurs only during India's agricultural growing season, when heat also lowers crop yields. I find no evidence that acclimatization, rising incomes, or other unobserved drivers of adaptation are occurring. I estimate that warming over the last 30 y is responsible for 59,300 suicides in India, accounting for 6.8% of the total upward trend. These results deliver large-scale quantitative evidence linking climate and agricultural income to self-harm in a developing country.

Suggested Citation

  • Carleton, Tamma A, 2017. "Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5962w9rt, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt5962w9rt
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    Cited by:

    1. Ingvild Almås & Maximilian Auffhammer & Tessa Bold & Ian Bolliger & Aluma Dembo & Solomon M. Hsiang & Shuhei Kitamura & Edward Miguel & Robert Pickmans, 2019. "Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making under Thermal Stress," NBER Working Papers 25785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hailemariam, Abebe & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Appau, Samuelson, 2023. "Temperature, health and wellbeing in Australia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Ahmed, Musa Hasen, 2025. "Early growing season temperature variation and fertilizer use among smallholder farmers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Li, Man, 2023. "Adaptation to expected and unexpected weather fluctuations: Evidence from Bangladeshi smallholder farmers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Chen, Yanran & Sun, Ruochen & Chen, Xi & Qin, Xuezheng, 2023. "Does extreme temperature exposure take a toll on mental health? Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 486-510, October.
    6. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Appau, Samuelson & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Farrell, Lisa, 2022. "Temperature shocks and gambling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Firoz Ahmad & Md Meraj Uddin & Laxmi Goparaju & Nazimur Rahman Talukdar & Javed Rizvi, 2021. "Agroforestry environment, potentiality and risk in India: a remote sensing and GIS understanding," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 15183-15203, October.
    8. Bertinelli, Luisito & Mahé, Clotilde & Strobl, Eric, 2023. "Earthquakes and mental health," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Huang, Yi & Li, Yanjun, 2023. "Labor activism over searing heat," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Pailler, Sharon & Tsaneva, Magda, 2018. "The effects of climate variability on psychological well-being in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 15-26.
    11. Bian, Luorao, 2025. "Do microclimates matter? The health impacts of urban heat using fine-scale data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Fang, Hanming & Lei, Ziteng & Lin, Liguo & Zhang, Peng & Zhou, Maigeng, 2023. "Family companionship and elderly suicide: Evidence from the Chinese Lunar New Year," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2019. "Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Gibney, Garreth & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Cullinan, John, 2023. "Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Xie, Victoria Wenxin, 2024. "Labor market adjustment to extreme heat shocks: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 266-283.
    16. Mueller, Valerie & Sheriff, Glenn & Dou, Xiaoya & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Tanaka, Shinsuke & Matsubayashi, Tetsuya, 2025. "The light of life: The effects of sunlight on suicide," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    18. Richard Freund, 2023. "From drought to distress: unpacking the mental health effects of water scarcity," CSAE Working Paper Series 2023-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    19. Huang, Jingyi & Hartemink, Alfred E. & Kucharik, Christopher J., 2021. "Soil-dependent responses of US crop yields to climate variability and depth to groundwater," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    20. Zhuang Hao & Xinhai Yuan & Yang Xie, 2025. "Temperature rising is threatening adolescent mental health in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(9), pages 1-24, September.
    21. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.

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