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Commentary on Economic Projections and Rules of Thumb for Monetary Policy (by Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland)

The Taylor rule is widely seen as a good summary of what the Federal Reserve does. Though the rule cannot easily be fitted to actual data as subsequently revised, at least for a full postwar sample, it can be fitted to real-time data (i.e., data as seen at the time), as shown by earlier work by Orphanides (2003). But in practice the Fed.s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), if it is using a Taylor rule, will look at its own forecasts or projections. Orphanides and Wieland (2008) examine whether a Taylor rule can be fitted to the FOMC.s own projections since 1988. They find that it can with appropriate parameters that satisfy the Taylor principle.that is, that give a unique stable solution under rational expectations. Furthermore, they find that the rule works better with these projections and resolves various puzzles regarding the data on outcomes.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/16.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/16
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  1. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
  2. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 307-324.
  6. Minford, Patrick & Perugini, Francesco & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2002. "Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 145-150, June.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Patrick Minford & Francesco Perugini & Naveen Srinivasan, 2003. "How Different are Money Supply Rules from Taylor Rules?," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 157-166, July.
  9. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Gillman, Max & Minford, Patrick, 2007. "An Endogenous Taylor Condition in an Endogenous Growth Monetary Policy Model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/29, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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