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I know best: Scepticism about the Knowledge of Experts and Peers on Economics Predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Agranov, M.
  • Elliott, M.
  • Ortoleva, P.

Abstract

Are individuals willing to change their minds when experts or their peers disagree with them? In an incentivized experiment on a representative sample, we collect binary predictions on unemployment and inflation. Then, we ask whether participants would like to change their predictions if the (vast) majority of experts (or peers) made the other choice. Very few participants are willing to change their predictions indicating a profound lack of trust in experts and the collective wisdom of peers. Nevertheless, there is variation by demographics. Further, scepticism in experts in this domain helps explain participants intention to vaccinate, providing some external validity.

Suggested Citation

  • Agranov, M. & Elliott, M. & Ortoleva, P., 2024. "I know best: Scepticism about the Knowledge of Experts and Peers on Economics Predictions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2423, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2423
    Note: mle30
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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