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Challenges in the New Global Macroeconomic and Financial Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Don Nakornthab

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Jittapa Prachuabmoh

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Tientip Subhanij

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Kessarin Tansuwanarat

    (Bank of Thailand)

Abstract

This paper presents our forward-looking conjecture of the global macroeconomic and financial environment over the next five years. Among the key unfolding developments we look at are advanced economies' monetary and fiscal policy exits and the remaining global imbalances. According to our analysis, policymakers in emerging market economies should be prepared for a world with slower growth, higher inflation, declining USD trend, and higher costs of capital. The policy challenges identified in this paper include the export-led growth model, public debt management, monetary policy communications, foreign exchange reserve accumulation, and financial markets development.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Nakornthab & Jittapa Prachuabmoh & Tientip Subhanij & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2009. "Challenges in the New Global Macroeconomic and Financial Environment," Working Papers 2009-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
  • Handle: RePEc:bth:wpaper:2009-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 716-733, September.
    2. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W. R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2006. "The resolution of global imbalances: Soft landing in the North, sudden stop in emerging markets?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 605-613, September.
    5. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    6. Bracke, Thierry & Bussière, Matthieu & Fidora, Michael & Straub, Roland, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
    7. Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2009. "How big is the output gap?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun12.
    8. repec:bth:wpaper:2005-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    11. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
    12. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2006. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in emerging markets: what are the domestic implications?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
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