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The Innovation Long-Run Risk Component

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  • Fabio Franceschini

Abstract

This paper provides robust empirical evidence that shocks to aggregate Research and Development (R&D) have persistent effects on macroeconomic dynamics and represent a significant risk for investors, as predicted by the 'long-run risk' literature. The analysis focuses on a single variable, 'effective R&D', which captures the entire contribution of R&D to productivity growth, flexibly accounting for knowledge spillovers and product proliferation effects. Deviations of effective R&D from its equilibrium level can be empirically identified leveraging the error correction term in the cointegration relationship among R&D, total factor productivity, and the labor force. In US data, structural effective R&D shocks affect productivity and consumption growth rates beyond business cycle horizons and are associated with a significant risk premium in a cross section of stock and bond portfolios (around 2% annually), with cash-flow sensitivities proving a key determinant.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Franceschini, 2025. "The Innovation Long-Run Risk Component," Working Papers wp1215, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1215
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    File URL: http://amsacta.unibo.it/8613/1/WP1215.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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