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Solvency distress contagion risk: network structure, bank heterogeneity and systemic resilience

Author

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  • Abduraimova, Kumushoy

    (Imperial College Business School)

  • Nahai-Williamson, Paul

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We systematically analyse how network structure and bank characteristics affect solvency distress contagion risk in interbank networks. As interbank networks become more connected and more regular in structure, the contagion risk of system-wide shocks and individual bank defaults initially increases and then decreases, all else being equal. The low density heterogeneous network structures that typify real interbank networks are particularly prone to solvency distress contagion risk, when banks are similar in balance sheet size and capitalisation. However, when networks are calibrated to UK data, the higher capitalisation of large, highly-connected banks relative to their interbank exposures significantly increases the resilience of the system and reduces the importance of network structure. These findings reinforce the importance and effectiveness of imposing higher capital buffers on systemically important banks and of policies that limit interbank exposures. We also demonstrate that for real-world interbank networks, simple network metrics other than individual bank connectedness do not provide robust indicators for monitoring solvency contagion risk, suggesting that policymakers should continue efforts to model these risks explicitly rather than rely on simple aggregate indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Abduraimova, Kumushoy & Nahai-Williamson, Paul, 2021. "Solvency distress contagion risk: network structure, bank heterogeneity and systemic resilience," Bank of England working papers 909, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abduraimova, Kumushoy, 2022. "Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sunday Akukodi Ugwu, 2024. "Contagion on Financial Networks: An Introduction," Papers 2402.08071, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial networks; systemic risk; financial contagion; banking policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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