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Extreme downside risk and financial crises

Author

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  • Harris, Richard D. F.

    (University of Exeter)

  • Nguyen, Linh H

    (University of Exeter)

  • Stoja, Evarist

    (University of Bristol)

Abstract

We investigate the dynamics of the relationship between returns and extreme downside risk in different states of the market by combining the framework of Bali, Demirtas, and Levy (2009) with a Markov switching mechanism. We show that the risk-return relationship identified by Bali, Demirtas, and Levy (2009) is highly significant in the low volatility state but disappears during periods of market turbulence. This is puzzling since it is during such periods that downside risk should be most prominent. We show that the absence of the risk-return relationship in the high-volatility state is due to leverage and volatility feedback effects arising from increased persistence in volatility. To better filter out these effects, we propose a simple modification that yields a positive tail risk-return relationship under all states of market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Harris, Richard D. F. & Nguyen, Linh H & Stoja, Evarist, 2015. "Extreme downside risk and financial crises," Bank of England working papers 547, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0547
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kon, Stanley J, 1984. "Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-165, March.
    2. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2012. "Markov switching and exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-365.
    3. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
    4. Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, February.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Vercelli & Eric Clark & Andrew Gouldson, 2016. "Finance and Sustainability Synthesis Report of WP7," Working papers wpaper166, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    2. Chiu, Wan-Chien & Wang, Chih-Wei & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2016. "Tail risk spillovers and corporate cash holdings," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 30-48.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downside risk; Markov switching; financial crisis; value at risk; leverage effect; volatility feedback effect.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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