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Return Predictability of Higher-Moment CAPM Market Models

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  • Chi-Hsiou Hung

Abstract

This paper examines the relative performance of the higher-moment CAPM market models and the CAPM in explaining realised returns and predicting one-period-ahead returns on individual stocks and (both equally- and value-weighted) portfolios of momentum, size and country sorts. The three-moment CAPM, the quadratic-marke model, provides the best ex post estimates in respect of the time-variation in returns on both the return winner and the smallest size portfolios. Further analysis using an orthogonal factor model for tackling multicollinearity confirms the findings. Parameter uncertainty, however, impinges on forecast accuracy and hence hampers the predictive ability of the higher-moment models. Copyright (c) 2008 The Author Journal compilation (c) 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Hsiou Hung, 2008. "Return Predictability of Higher-Moment CAPM Market Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7-8), pages 998-1022.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008-09:i:7-8:p:998-1022
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    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Anurag & Hung, Chi-Hsiou, 2011. "Informed momentum trading versus uninformed "naive" investors strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3077-3089, November.
    2. Hung, Chi-Hsiou D. & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Fang, Victor, 2014. "Determinants of stock returns: Factors or systematic co-moments? Crisis versus non-crisis periods," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 14-29.
    3. Huffman, Stephen P. & Makar, Stephen D. & Beyer, Scott B., 2010. "A three-factor model investigation of foreign exchange-rate exposure," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-12.

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