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Exchange rate regimes and inflation and output in Sub-Saharan countries

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  • Marc Klau

Abstract

The paper studies the role of real exchange rates and exchange rate policies in explaining differences in the economic performance in the CFA franc countries, with their fixed exchange rate regime, and another group of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with more flexible arrangements. Policy-makers in inflation-prone countries are faced with a permanent dilemma: should policy priority be given to containing inflation or to maintaining competitiveness through currency depreciation. This policy conflict tends to be aggravated by the fact that in both country groups devaluations seem to have a positive impact on economic activity, throwing doubt on previous work on possible contractionary effects of devaluations. Even so, the question as to whether the pegging of an exchange rate is advantageous, when taking account of both output and inflation effects, remains open, as it partly depends on the supply shocks to which the countries are exposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Klau, 1998. "Exchange rate regimes and inflation and output in Sub-Saharan countries," BIS Working Papers 53, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:53
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    2. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldós & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 132-160, March.
    3. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Economias em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(2), pages 187-213.
    2. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    3. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Davis, Junior, 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and economic performance: Does CFA zone membership benefit their economies?," MPRA Paper 54075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q3-139-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Issiaka Coulibaly, 2014. "Competitiveness and growth within the CFA franc zone: Does the switch to the Euro matter?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 139, pages 1-18.
    6. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS: An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0510, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    8. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813108448_0005 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Howard J. Shatz & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection: Lessons from Experience," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 5, pages 115-127 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

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