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Does inflation targeting matter for output and inflation volatility?

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  • Luca Gambetti and Evi Pappa

Abstract

We address this question by examining the conditional dynamics of inflation and output growth in response to markup shocks for 14 industrialized countries. Markup shocks create a trade-off between output gap and inflation stabilization purposes, and the theory predicts that conditional on such shocks output growth should be more volatile than inflation in inflation targeting countries. Data suggest no differences between targeting and non-targeting countries in the post 1990s. Moreover, we document a similar increase in the conditional relative variability of output growth after the adoption of inflation targeting for both groups of countries. We argue that changes in the conduct of monetary policy can explain this pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Gambetti and Evi Pappa, 2009. "Does inflation targeting matter for output and inflation volatility?," Working Papers 410, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:410
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    File URL: http://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/410.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2007. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages 167-191, March.
    2. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
    5. Verónica Cohen Sabbán & Martín Gonzalez Rozada & Andrew Powell, 2003. "A New Test for the Success of Inflation Targeting," Business School Working Papers inflationtargeting, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    conditional moments; inflation targeting; markup shocks; new policy trade-off; policy ratio; SVAR; trade-off ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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