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A New Test for the Success of Inflation Targeting

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  • Verónica Cohen Sabbán
  • Martín Gonzalez Rozada
  • Andrew Powell

Abstract

We propose a new test, derived from a set of variance decompositions of a structural VAR, for the success of inflation targeting. In contrast to standard sacrifice ratios this test considers changes in the structure of real and nominal shocks; second moment effects. We find strong support for IT with 7 of the 9 countries in our sample having negative “sacrifices” and many countries with “benefits”. However, we also find very different performances across IT countries. We find that “IT success” depends on the size of the real shocks suffered but controlling for this there are differences in country performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Verónica Cohen Sabbán & Martín Gonzalez Rozada & Andrew Powell, 2003. "A New Test for the Success of Inflation Targeting," Business School Working Papers inflationtargeting, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:inflationtargeting
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Corbo, Vittorio & Landerretche, Oscar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 343-368, October.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
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    5. Guy Debelle, 1998. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ23.
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    7. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    1. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol? [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," NBER Working Papers 12515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ismail Genc & Minsoo Lee & Candelaria Rodríguez & Zachary Lutz, 2007. "Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 15-27.
    4. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    6. Luca Gambetti and Evi Pappa, 2009. "Does inflation targeting matter for output and inflation volatility?," Working Papers 410, Barcelona School of Economics.

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