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Quantum Bayesian Inference: An Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Jon Frost

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Carlos Madeira

    (Central Bank of Chile)

  • Yash Rastogi

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Harald Uhlig

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper introduces a framework for performing Bayesian inference using quantum computation. It presents a proof-of-concept quantum algorithm that performs posterior sampling. We providean accessible introduction to quantum computation for economistsand a practical demonstration of quantum-based posterior samplingfor Bayesian estimation. Our key contribution is the preparation of a quantum state whose measurement yields samples from a discretized posterior distribution. While the proposed approach does not yet offer computational speedups over classical techniques such asMarkov Chain Monte Carlo, it highlights both the conceptual promise and practical challenges in integrating quantum computation into the econometrician's toolbox.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Frost & Carlos Madeira & Yash Rastogi & Harald Uhlig, 2026. "Quantum Bayesian Inference: An Exploration," Working Papers 2026-40, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Hull, Isaiah, 2023. "Dynamic Programming on a Quantum Annealer: Solving the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 18190, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 409-431, August.
    3. David Layden & Guglielmo Mazzola & Ryan V. Mishmash & Mario Motta & Pawel Wocjan & Jin-Sung Kim & Sarah Sheldon, 2023. "Quantum-enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7969), pages 282-287, July.
    4. Christopher McMahon & Donald McGillivray & Ajit Desai & Francisco Rivadeneyra & Jean-Paul Lam & Thomas Lo & Danica Marsden & Vladimir Skavysh, 2024. "Improving the Efficiency of Payments Systems Using Quantum Computing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(10), pages 7325-7341, October.
    5. Michael Brooks, 2023. "Quantum computers: what are they good for?," Nature, Nature, vol. 617(7962), pages 1-3, May.
    6. Neng-Chun Chiu & Elias C. Trapp & Jinen Guo & Mohamed H. Abobeih & Luke M. Stewart & Simon Hollerith & Pavel L. Stroganov & Marcin Kalinowski & Alexandra A. Geim & Simon J. Evered & Sophie H. Li & Xin, 2025. "Continuous operation of a coherent 3,000-qubit system," Nature, Nature, vol. 646(8087), pages 1075-1080, October.
    7. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Isaiah Hull, 2026. "Dynamic programming in economics on a quantum annealer," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(1), pages 1-37, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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