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Class Mobility in the Era of Rising Inequality: A Synthetic Dynasty Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey Wodtke

    (University of Chicago Department of Sociology Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility)

  • Weiqi Wang

    (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility)

  • Kristina Butaeva

    (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility)

  • Steven N. Durlauf

    (Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility and NBER)

Abstract

This paper studies contemporary trends in class mobility using a new approach based on the “synthetic dynasties†represented in Markov chains. This approach yields several novel measures of movement and memory, which respectively capture how class positions differ from one generation to the next and how the influence of class origins dissipates across generations. Applying these methods to data from the U.S., we find that overall levels of movement and memory have remained largely stable across cohorts born between 1945 and 1990. This stability, however, masks offsetting class-specific trends. Among those from the upper and lower classes, movement has declined and memory has increased. In contrast, among the middle classes, movement has risen and memory has weakened.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Wodtke & Weiqi Wang & Kristina Butaeva & Steven N. Durlauf, 2026. "Class Mobility in the Era of Rising Inequality: A Synthetic Dynasty Analysis," Working Papers 2026-25, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-25
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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2026-25.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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