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The short and long run dynamics of the Great Gatsby Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Battiston, Diego
  • Maurer, Stephan
  • Potlogea, Andrei
  • Rodríguez Mora, José Vicente

Abstract

The strong evidence in support of the Great Gatsby Curve (i.e. the negative cross-sectional relationship between intergenerational mobility and inequality) seems to be at odds with the fact that large increases in inequality in the US have not resulted in decreases in mobility. We tackle this puzzle by measuring, for the first time, a dynamic version of the "Great Gatsby Curve" that relates changes in inequality to changes in intergenerational income mobility. We find that across US counties and during the last century the relationship is weak and unstable over relatively short intervals of two decades, but negative and significant over a longer period of almost a century. The historical record suggests that if the large increase of inequality observed in the US does not reverse, this may result in substantially lower socioeconomic mobility in the long term, even if mobility has not decreased yet.

Suggested Citation

  • Battiston, Diego & Maurer, Stephan & Potlogea, Andrei & Rodríguez Mora, José Vicente, 2025. "The short and long run dynamics of the Great Gatsby Curve," Working Papers 49, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cexwps:327983
    DOI: 10.48787/kops/352-2-yyqnfil1r6jh4
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    1. Ricard Grebol & Margarita Machelett & Jan Stuhler & Ernesto Villanueva, 2025. "Assortative Mating, Inequality, and Rising Educational Mobility in Spain," Papers 2512.22848, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N52 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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