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Interpreting Trends in Intergenerational Mobility

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  • Martin Nybom
  • Jan Stuhler

Abstract

Studying a dynamic model of intergenerational transmission, we show that past events affect contemporaneous trends in intergenerational mobility. Structural changes may generate long-lasting mobility trends that can be nonmonotonic, and declining mobility may reflect past gains rather than a recent deterioration of equality of opportunity. We provide two applications. We first show that changes in the parent generation have partially offset the effect of rising skill premia on income mobility in the United States. We then show that a Swedish school reform reduced the transmission of inequalities in the directly affected generation but increased their persistence in the next.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2024. "Interpreting Trends in Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2531-2570.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/729582
    DOI: 10.1086/729582
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    Cited by:

    1. Hjorth-Trolle, Anders & Landersø, Rasmus, 2024. "The Different Sources of Intergenerational Income Mobility in High and Low Income Families," IZA Discussion Papers 17411, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. French, Eric Baird & O’Dea, Cormac & MacCuish, Jamie, 2021. "The Intergenerational Elasticity of Earnings: Exploring the Mechanisms," CEPR Discussion Papers 15975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2017. "Egalitarianism under Pressure: Toward Lower Economic Mobility in the Knowledge Economy?," IZA Discussion Papers 10664, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Julia Baarck & Moritz Bode & Andreas Peichl, 2025. "Rising Inequality, Declining Mobility: The Evolution of Intergenerational Mobility in Germany," CEBI working paper series 25-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    5. Julia Baarck & Moritz Bode & Andreas Peichl, 2025. "Rising Inequality, Declining Mobility: The Evolution of Intergenerational Mobility in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 12058, CESifo.
    6. Chen, Yuyu & Naidu, Suresh & Yu, Tinghua & Yuchtman, Noam, 2015. "Intergenerational mobility and institutional change in 20th century China," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 44-73.
    7. Elinder, Mikael & Erixson, Oscar & Waldenström, Daniel, 2018. "Inheritance and wealth inequality: Evidence from population registers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 17-30.
    8. Diego Battiston & Stephan Maurer & Andrei Potlogea & Jose V. Rodriguez Mora, 2025. "The Short and Long Run Dynamics of the Great Gatsby Curve," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 324, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    9. Berger, Thor & Engzell, Per & Eriksson, Björn & Molinder, Jakob, 2023. "Social Mobility in Sweden before the Welfare State," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 431-463, June.
    10. Patrick Bennett & Jessica Botros, 2024. "Intergenerational Mobility, Economic Shocks, and the Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 10, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    11. Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2019. "Steady-state assumptions in intergenerational mobility research," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(1), pages 77-97, March.
    12. Margo, Robert A., 2016. "Obama, Katrina, and the Persistence of Racial Inequality," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 301-341, June.
    13. Charles M. Beach, 2016. "Changing income inequality: A distributional paradigm for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 1229-1292, November.
    14. Yingfeng Fang & Borui Wu, 2026. "Dynamic Measurement and Decomposition of Inequality in China From a Fair Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 1-25, January.
    15. Yu-Wei Luke Chu & Ming-Jen Lin, 2020. "Intergenerational earnings mobility in Taiwan: 1990–2010," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 11-45, July.
    16. Jørgen Modalsli & Kelly Vosters, 2024. "Spillover Bias in Multigenerational Income Regressions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(3), pages 743-776.
    17. Pankaj C. Patel, 2024. "Saved by the bell? The effects of compulsory schooling laws on self-employment and earnings in Australia," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 227-296, January.
    18. Jørgen Modalsli, 2023. "Multigenerational Persistence: Evidence from 146 Years of Administrative Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 929-961.
    19. Mario Alloza, 2021. "The impact of taxes on income mobility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 794-854, August.
    20. Chu, Luke Yu-Wei & Lin, Ming-Jen, 2016. "Economic development and intergenerational earnings mobility: Evidence from Taiwan," Working Paper Series 19495, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Ahsan, Md Nazmul & Emran, M. Shahe & Mohammed, A. R. Shariq & Murphy, Orla A. & Shilpi, Forhad, 2025. "When Ranks Fail: New Evidence on Intergenerational Educational Mobility," MPRA Paper 127250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jonathan M. V. Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2026. "The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility after 1980," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-15, January.
    23. Junwu, Xu & Zhaoxiong, Chen & Junjie, Wu, 2022. "Return of migrant workers, educational investment in children and intergenerational mobility in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 997-1009.
    24. Maystadt, Jean-François & Migali, Giuseppe, 2021. "The transmission of health across 7 generations in China, 1789–1906," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    25. Xuechao Qian, 2025. "A Nation of Two Tales: The Dual Intergenerational Economic Transmission in Rural and Urban China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(3), pages 1-38, June.

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