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An inquiry into manufacturing capacity in Italy after the double-dip recession

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  • Libero Monteforte

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giordano Zevi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper investigate the effects of the prolonged double-dip recession on the productive capacity of the Italian manufacturing sector, employing three methods: a production function approach, a survey-based methodology and a statistical filtering of the industrial production series. We estimate that between 2007 and 2013 capacity contracted by 11�17%, depending on the method. We also conduct an exercise to quantify the loss with respect to a counterfactual evolution of capacity in a �no-crisis� scenario in which pre-2008 trends are extrapolated: in this case the loss is close to 20% for all methods. Finally, we identify the main sectors of activity responsible for the reduction in capacity in the baseline and counterfactual scenarios, and find that they don�t always coincide, reflecting uneven dynamics across sectors before and during the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Libero Monteforte & Giordano Zevi, 2016. "An inquiry into manufacturing capacity in Italy after the double-dip recession," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 302, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_302_16
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0302/QEF_302_16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Malgarini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector: a comparison between time series and survey estimates," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 5-19.
    2. Antonio Bassanetti & Jörg Döpke & Roberto Torrini & Roberta Zizza, 2006. "Capital, Labour and Productivity: What Role Do They Play in the Potential GDP Weakness of France, Germany and Italy?," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 123-159, Springer.
    3. Alberto Baffigi, 2011. "Italian National Accounts, 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 18, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    5. Antonio Accetturo, & Antonio Bassanetti & Matteo Bugamelli & Ivan Faiella & Paolo Finaldi Russo & Daniele Franco & Silvia Giacomelli & Massimo Omiccioli, 2013. "The Italian industrial system between globalization and crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 193, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2010. "Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

    1. CELI, Giuseppe & VITI, Domenico, 2018. "Land Use, Internal Mobility And External Immigration In Italy," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 18(3), pages 23-43.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productive capacity; manufacturing;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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