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An estimation of the effects of Brexit on trade and migration

Author

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  • Rodolfo Campos

    (Banco de España)

  • Jacopo Timini

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper uses a gravity model approach to estimate the effects of Brexit in two dimensions: trade in goods and migration. We simulate two scenarios: 1) no agreement with reversión to WTO rules and no special treatment for migrants; 2) signature of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). According to our results, Brexit may have large negative effects on trade and migration flows between the EU and the UK. In the WTO scenario, trade flows are predicted to drop by 30% and migration by close to 25%. If the UK and the EU sign an FTA-like agreement (which does not include free mobility of labour), the negative effects on trade are lessened although there is no significant difference in terms of migration with respect to the WTO scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2019. "An estimation of the effects of Brexit on trade and migration," Occasional Papers 1912, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:1912
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Revisiting the effects of NAFTA," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Jacopo Timini & Francesca Viani, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 291-308.
    3. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Erdey, László & Gáll, József & Márkus, Ádám & Tőkés, Tibor, 2020. "Changes in the trade patterns of the UK in a global perspective," MPRA Paper 98110, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jan 2020.
    5. André Wolf, 2019. "Der Brexit aus EU-Perspektive [The Brexit from an EU perspective]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(10), pages 739-740, October.
    6. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2021. "International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Steven Buigut & Burcu Kapar, 2023. "How did Brexit impact EU trade? Evidence from real data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1566-1581, June.
    8. Aleksy Kwilinski & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko & Henryk Dzwigol & Rafis Abazov & Denys Pudryk, 2022. "International Migration Drivers: Economic, Environmental, Social, and Political Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Antoine Berthou & Sophie Haincourt & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve & Ángel Estrada & Moritz A. Roth & Alexander Kadow, 2019. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of Brexit through trade and migration channels," Occasional Papers 1911, Banco de España.
    10. Garcia-Lazaro, Aida & Mistak, Jakub & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2021. "Supply chain networks, trade and the Brexit deal: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Iván Kataryniuk & Javier Pérez & Francesca Viani, 2021. "(De-)Globalisation of trade and regionalisation: a survey of the facts and arguments," Occasional Papers 2124, Banco de España.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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