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El proceso de cambio estructural de la economía española desde una perspectiva histórica

Author

Listed:
  • Víctor González-Díez

    () (Banco de España)

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

The historical experience and the economic literature show that the process of structural change of the economies towards more advanced stages of development is associated to a particular pattern in the evolution of the sectorial composition of economic activity. In a first stage, the share in manufacturing increases while the share in agriculture decreases. In a second stage, the share in manufacturing starts decreasing, and the share in services starts increasing. This work presents a brief overview of the available empirical evidence about this process of structural change at international level, highlighting the case of the Spanish economy. As a result of the rapid process of structural change during the last four decades, the productive structure of the Spanish economy has converged towards that of the European countries, with higher shares in services and manufacturing, and a lower share in agriculture. Beyond the impact of cyclical fluctuations, we can expect increases in the services share t the expense of manufacturing and agriculture share. According to the literature, these patterns can be related with demand forces (citizen’s preferences), supply forces (different trends in sectorial productivity), or a combination of both due to the openness to international trade, which can accelerate the process. Therefore, a deep investigation of the causes of this phenomenon of structural change in the Spanish case is essential inasmuch the future development of the process will determine long-run economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Víctor González-Díez & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2019. "El proceso de cambio estructural de la economía española desde una perspectiva histórica," Occasional Papers 1907, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:1907
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/19/Fich/do1907.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    2. Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2004. "Trade and Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(2), pages 613-646.
    3. Baumol, William J & Blackman, Sue Anne Batey & Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 806-817, September.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    5. Pilar Cuadrado & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Potential growth of the spanish economy," Occasional Papers 1603, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; economic sectors; sectorial analysis; Spanish economy;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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