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Potential growth of the spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Pilar Cuadrado

    (Banco de España)

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper presents an estimate of the Spanish economy’s potential growth. This estimate is based on a production function methodology that includes certain refi nements on previous versions and generates less procyclical potential output growth estimates than those traditionally considered in the literature. As a result, the (positive) output gap estimated in expansions is higher and that estimated in recessions is lower. According to these results, given the available population projections and under the assumption that total factor productivity (TFP) and structural unemployment will behave in line with historical patterns, the Spanish economy’s potential growth is expected to recover gradually over the coming years but, in line with projections by international organisations, to lower rates than those in the expansion period. However, per capita growth rates fully recover to the pre-crisis levels, which highlights the importance of population projections in shaping the Spanish potential growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Cuadrado & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Potential growth of the spanish economy," Occasional Papers 1603, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:1603
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/16/Fich/do1603e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olympia Bover, 2011. "The Spanish survey of household finances (eff): description and methods of the 2008 wave," Occasional Papers 1103, Banco de España.
    2. Olympia Bover, 2008. "The Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF): description and methods of the 2005 wave," Occasional Papers 0803, Banco de España.
    3. Olympia Bover, 2008. "Oversampling of the wealthy in the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF)," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 56th ISI Session, Lisbon, August 2007, volume 28, pages 399-402, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Sarai Criado & Adrian van Rixtel, 2008. "Structured finance and the financial turmoil of 2007-2008: and introductory overview," Occasional Papers 0808, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Borg, "undated". "The length of stay of foreign workers in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/01/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Víctor González-Díez & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2019. "El proceso de cambio estructural de la economía española desde una perspectiva histórica," Occasional Papers 1907, Banco de España.
    3. Gabriel Jiménez & Enrique Moral-Benito & Raquel Vegas, 2018. "Bank lending standards over the cycle: the role of firms’ productivity and credit risk," Working Papers 1811, Banco de España.
    4. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.
    5. Omar Rachedi, 2020. "Structural transformation in the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 2003, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential growth; output gap; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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