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By 2079, Aridification Will Have Reduced the GDPs of Africa and Asia by 16% and 6.3%, respectively

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  • Maurizio Malpede
  • Marco Percoco

Abstract

We examine the effects of human-induced desertification on economic growth by exploiting a 56 km-by-56 km grid-cell global dataset on the annual frequency from 1990-2015. We find that areas that experienced large soil aridification are associated with a reduction in GDP per capita. Our results indicate that from 1990-2015, aridification reduced the GDPs of African and Asian countries by 12% and 2.7%, respectively. Our estimates are robust to adding higher-order terms of geo-climatic variables and controlling for country-specific linear trends, which allows us to project future costs of desertification. Our findings show that desertification will generate losses in GDP growth by 16% and 6.7% in Africa and Asia, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurizio Malpede & Marco Percoco, 2021. "By 2079, Aridification Will Have Reduced the GDPs of Africa and Asia by 16% and 6.3%, respectively," GREEN Working Papers 14, GREEN, Centre for Research on Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy & Networks, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp14
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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