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Co-variation des taux de croissance sectoriels au Luxembourg: l?apport des corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques

Listed author(s):
  • Abdelaziz Rouabah

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    Cette analyse emploie le modèle des corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques développées récemment par Engle (2002) pour déterminer le caractère synchrone ou asynchrone des mouvements des taux de croissance de la valeur ajoutée des différents secteurs économiques au Luxembourg. Le recours à cette méthodologie, initialement développée pour l?analyse des séries financières, s?explique principalement par la non-constance de la volatilité des séries trimestrielles des composantes du PIB luxembourgeois. Cette caractéristique de la volatilité demeure naturelle pour une petite économie très ouverte, sujette par ailleurs, à une multiplicité de chocs exogènes dont les effets se traduiraient par une plus grande volatilité des agrégats économiques. Nous adoptons, par ailleurs, le test de causalité des moyennes et des variances construit par Cheung et Ng (1996) pour confirmer ou infirmer le rôle attribué par certains au secteur financier en tant que locomotive de l?économie luxembourgeoise.

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    File URL: http://www.bcl.lu/fr/Recherche/publications/cahiers_etudes/25/BCLWP025.pdf
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    Paper provided by Central Bank of Luxembourg in its series BCL working papers with number 25.

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    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2007
    Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp025
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcl.lu/

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    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arnaud Bourgain & Paolo Guarda & Patrice Pieretti, 2000. "Dynamique de la croissance et spécialisation: analyse en panel des branches industrielles," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 167, pages 275-298.
    4. Lee, Jim, 2006. "The comovement between output and prices: Evidence from a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 110-116, April.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:18:y:2006:i:3:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Patrice Pieretti & Arnaud Bourgain, 2006. "Measuring Agglomeration Forces in a Financial Center," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(3), pages 1-9.
    7. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    8. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
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