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Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment

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  • Chao Gu
  • Janet Hua Jiang
  • Liang Wang

Abstract

We construct a New Monetarist model with labor market search and identify two channels that affect the long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages through bargaining because unemployed workers rely more heavily on cash transactions and suffer more from inflation than employed workers: this wage-bargaining channel generates a downward Phillips curve without assuming nominal rigidity. Second, inflation increases the firm’s financing costs, which discourages job creation and increases unemployment; this cash-financing channel leads to an upward-sloping Phillips curve. We calibrate our model to the U.S. economy. The improvement in firm financing conditions can explain the observation that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve has switched from positive to negative post-2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Gu & Janet Hua Jiang & Liang Wang, 2025. "Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment," Staff Working Papers 25-26, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-26
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    2. Claire Greene & Julian Perry & Joanna Stavins, 2024. "Consumer Payment Behavior by Income and Demographics," Consumer Payments Research Data Reports 2024-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert, 2015. "Aggregate Unemployment and Household Unsecured Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 77-100, January.
    4. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Schütz, Marlies & Ploder, Michael & Polt, Wolfgang & Kattel, Rainer & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2025. "Zeit für eine Industriepolitik in Deutschland? Eine Auseinandersetzung mit Rechtfertigungen, Risiken und Rahmenbedingungen," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 4-2025, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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