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Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment

Author

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  • Chao Gu
  • Janet Hua Jiang
  • Liang Wang

Abstract

We construct a New Monetarist model with labor market search and identify two channels that affect the long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages through bargaining because unemployed workers rely more heavily on cash transactions and suffer more from inflation than employed workers: this wage-bargaining channel generates a downward Phillips curve without assuming nominal rigidity. Second, inflation increases the firm’s financing costs, which discourages job creation and increases unemployment; this cash-financing channel leads to an upward-sloping Phillips curve. We calibrate our model to the U.S. economy. The improvement in firm financing conditions can explain the observation that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve has switched from positive to negative post-2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Gu & Janet Hua Jiang & Liang Wang, 2025. "Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment," Staff Working Papers 25-26, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-26
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-26
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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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