Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches
Since the autumn of 1997, the regional offices of the Bank of Canada have conducted quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada. These consultations, summarized in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), are structured around a survey questionnaire that covers topics of importance to the Bank, notably business activity, pressures on production capacity, prices and inflation, and credit conditions. The author aims to enhance our understanding of the survey’s information content by extending the early work of Martin and Papile (2004) in two key ways. First, since all BOS questions are designed to capture some aspect of economic activity and are therefore interrelated, various approaches were considered to extract the common underlying variations among the indicators: a subjective approach (a simple average), principal-component analysis and factor analysis. Second, the information content of these common movements is assessed, using regression analysis and a forecasting assessment. The results suggest that all approaches to extract the information from the BOS provide very similar measures of underlying common variations. This underlying variable appears to be a useful indicator of economic activity, particularly for providing information on investment spending. However, the balance of opinion on future sales growth remains a better indicator than any measures of common movements for the growth of real GDP.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graeme Chamberlin, 2007. "Forcasting GDP using external data sources," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 1(8), pages 18-23, August.
- Bruno, Giancarlo & Malgarini, Marco, 2002.
"An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy,"
42331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giancarlo Bruno & Marco Malgarini, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," ISAE Working Papers 28, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003.
"Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?,"
Working Paper Series
151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Papers 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Paul Jenkins & David Longworth, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 3-10.
- Lise Pichette & Lori Rennison, 2011. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Autumn), pages 21-28.
- Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:12-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.