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A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey

Author

Listed:
  • David Amirault
  • Naveen Rai
  • Laurent Martin

Abstract

In 1997, the Bank of Canada established regional offices to enhance communication and liaison activities across the country and to gather more effective regional input for the Bank’s policy deliberations. Shortly thereafter, the regional offices began conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS)—a quarterly face-to-face survey of senior managers at Canadian firms. The BOS has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual. More specifically, it provides a brief history of the BOS; explains and discusses the survey’s sampling strategy and other elements of its design and implementation; highlights some demographic characteristics of the firms that participate; assembles a list of special topics addressed in both the quarterly BOS and the ad-hoc surveys conducted by regional offices; discusses some BOS questions not regularly published; and updates and augments an earlier assessment (Martin and Papile 2004) of the information content of BOS indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • David Amirault & Naveen Rai & Laurent Martin, 2020. "A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey," Discussion Papers 2020-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:20-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lori Rennison & Farid Novin & Matthieu Verstraete, 2014. "Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2014(Autumn), pages 34-46.
    2. Paul Jenkins & David Longworth, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 3-10.
    3. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    4. Calista Cheung & Luke Frymire & Lise Pichette, 2020. "Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?," Discussion Papers 2020-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Gerrit Bilkes, 1997. "The new bank note distribution system," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Summer), pages 41-54.
    6. Wei Dong & James Fudurich & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics," Staff Analytical Notes 17-19, Bank of Canada.
    7. Leonid Karasik & Danny Leung & Ben Tomlin, 2016. "Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," Staff Working Papers 16-51, Bank of Canada.
    8. Lise Pichette & Lori Rennison, 2011. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Autumn), pages 21-28.
    9. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. David Amirault & Louis-Robert Lafleur, 2000. "Recent Performance of the Canadian Economy: A Regional View," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2000(Autumn), pages 13-23.
    11. Tiff Macklem, 2002. "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 11-18.
    12. Wei Dong & James Fudurich & Lena Suchanek, 2016. "The Digital Economy—Insight from a Special Survey with IT Service Exporters," Discussion Papers 16-21, Bank of Canada.
    13. Daniel de Munnik & Mark Illing & David Dupuis, 2013. "Assessing the accuracy of non-random business conditions surveys: a novel approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 371-388, February.
    14. Jean Mair, 2005. "How the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar Has Affected Canadian Firms: Evidence from the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Autumn), pages 19-25.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm dynamics; Regional economic developments;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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