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Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach

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This article reviews recent work that uses principal-component analysis to extract information common to indicators from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The authors use correlation analysis and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to assess and compare the information content of the principal component with that of responses to key individual survey questions on growth in real gross domestic product and in real business investment. Results suggest that summarizing the common movements among BOS indicators may provide useful information for forecasting near-term growth in business investment. For growth in real gross domestic product, however, the survey’s balance of opinion on future sales growth appears to be more informative.

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  • Lise Pichette & Lori Rennison, 2011. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Autumn), pages 21-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2011:y:2011:i:autumn11:p:21-28
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    1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 11, pages 415-465 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Anna Nordstrom & Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone & Seiichi Shimizu & Turgut Kisinbay & Jorge Restrepo, 2009. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies; Targeting Emerging Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 267, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    5. de Carvalho Filho Irineu E, 2011. "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-46, July.
    6. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
    7. Rose Cunningham & Brigitte Desroches & Eric Santor, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Spring), pages 13-25.
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    1. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1254-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    3. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 217-234.
    4. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Lise Pichette, 2012. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches," Discussion Papers 12-8, Bank of Canada.

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