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The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment

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  • Monica Martin
  • Cristiano Papile

Abstract

Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The BOS provides a timely source of information on what businesses are experiencing and planning. Business consultations are timed to feed into the decision-making process that precedes the Bank's fixed dates for announcing monetary policy decisions. The consultations are structured around a questionnaire. Every quarter, 100 firms that reflect the diverse composition of the Canadian economy in terms of region, type of business activity, and firm size are interviewed. Because the BOS is a relatively new tool, the survey time series is short. The assessment presented in this paper, which is based on charts and correlations, is intended as an initial guide. The findings suggest that the survey serves as a barometer of the Canadian economy and provides leading signals of future activity. The interview responses also inform the Bank about production-capacity constraints, labour shortages, and inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Martin & Cristiano Papile, 2004. "The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment," Staff Working Papers 04-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-15
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2004-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bny:wpaper:0132 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Daniel de Munnik & Kuan Xu, 2007. "Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms," Staff Working Papers 07-31, Bank of Canada.
    3. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    4. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    5. Roman Lysenko & Nataliia Kolesnichenko, 2016. "Nowcasting of Economic Development Indicators Using the NBU's Business Survey Results," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 235, pages 43-56.
    6. Gokhberg, Leonid & Meissner, Dirk & Gershman, Mikhail & Vlasova, Valeriya, 2025. "Doing science an approach to a comprehensive assessment of the business climate for science and technology," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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