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Monetary Policy and Uncertainty

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Abstract

Central banks must cope with considerable uncertainty about what will happen in the economy when formulating monetary policy. This article describes the different types of uncertainty that arise and looks at examples of uncertainty that the Bank has recently encountered. It then reviews the strategies employed by the Bank to deal with this problem. The other articles in this special issue focus on three of these major strategies.

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  • Paul Jenkins & David Longworth, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 3-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2002:y:2002:i:summer02:p:3-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Lise Pichette, 2012. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches," Discussion Papers 12-8, Bank of Canada.
    2. Tiff Macklem, 2005. "Commentary : central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 475-494.
    3. Sra Chuenchoksan & Don Nakornthab & Surach Tanboon, 2008. "Uncertainty in the Estimation of Potential Output and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    4. Calista Cheung & Luke Frymire & Lise Pichette, 2020. "Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?," Discussion Papers 2020-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Paul, Stephan & Schmidt, Christoph M. (ed.), 2009. "Wirtschaftspolitik im Zeichen europäischer Integration: Festschrift für Wim Kösters anlässlich seines 65. Geburtstages," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 83, number 83.
    6. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-348.
    7. David Amirault & Naveen Rai & Laurent Martin, 2020. "A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey," Discussion Papers 2020-15, Bank of Canada.
    8. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    9. David Longworth, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 349-360.
    10. Rodríguez Arnulfo & Rodríguez Pedro N., 2007. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Working Papers 2007-04, Banco de México.
    11. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 1, pages 001-025, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Pedro N. Rodriguez, 2006. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 30, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Paul Jenkins, 2019. "Into the Unknown: Reflections on Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Decision-making," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 549, July.
    14. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    15. Sharon Kozicki & Jill Vardy, 2017. "Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 17-14, Bank of Canada.
    16. Monica Martin & Cristiano Papile, 2004. "The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment," Staff Working Papers 04-15, Bank of Canada.

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