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Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Tax Evasion and Real Side Response of Russian Households

We use detailed micro-level data on consumption and income for a 1998-2004 panel of Russian households to study the effects of the flat income tax reform in 2001. We show that the gap between household expenditures and reported income is a meaningful measure of tax evasion. We use the difference-indifference and regression discontinuity approaches to assess the response of tax evasion and worker productivity to the flat tax. We find that the tax evasion response (10-12%) is larger than the productivity response (0-4%), and thus increased tax revenues and reported earnings are largely driven by improved tax compliance.

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File URL: http://icepp.gsu.edu/files/2015/03/ispwp0728.pdf
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Paper provided by International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University in its series International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU with number paper0728.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0728
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Web page: http://aysps.gsu.edu/isp/index.html

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  11. Jonathan S. Feinstein, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Income Tax Evasion and its Detection," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(1), pages 14-35, Spring.
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  24. Naomi E. Feldman & Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Estimating tax noncompliance with evidence from unaudited tax returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 327-352, 03.
  25. Panayiota Lyssiotou & Panos Pashardes & Thanasis Stengos, 2004. "Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 622-640, 07.
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